Clear Skies Won't Help China's $167 Billion Dam

SadaNews - The largest polluting country in the world maintains emissions under control, without any help from the weather.

Electricity generation from thermal power plants in China decreased by 1.3% until July of this year. Along with a decline in cement production by 4.5% and steel by 3.1%, this is an indicator that coal consumption continues to decline, even amid continued industrial activity growth. Since the country is responsible for about one-third of total carbon emissions, this is entirely positive news.

Poor Hydropower Performance

However, the situation should have been much better if it weren't for the ongoing poor performance of hydropower. This may prompt Chinese leadership to exercise caution as it launches the $167 billion "Yarlung Tsangpo" dam project, which is being built on the eastern edge of Tibet and is expected to become the largest power plant in history once completed.

China has increased its hydropower generators' capacity by more than a third since 2020, but its electricity production this year has only risen by 11% so far, with hydropower generation decreasing by 27.8 terawatt-hours until July compared to the same month in 2024, a decline almost as severe as the 37.4 terawatt-hours drop in thermal power generation. For unclear reasons, the country is obtaining fewer and fewer electrons for all the cement it is using to build dams on its rivers.

Decrease in Rainfall

The reduction in rainfall amounts is one of the obvious influencing factors, and if you want to understand emissions trends in a given year, you need to look at the amount of water flowing in the Yangtze River Basin. The network of dams there supplies about one-fifth of the hydropower in the world. When the levels of those channels drop, coal is the alternative that compensates for the shortfall.

This year is no exception; despite the floods and hurricanes that hit Beijing and coastal provinces last month, rainfall in the river basin was 25% below long-term averages during July. This year appears to be the fourth dry year among the last six. Without the necessary water to turn the turbines, all those hydropower generators remain idle.

Accelerated Drought Amid Distorted Climate Predictions

With some luck, the drought that began in 2021 may just be a string of unfortunate years, and things will stabilize with the return of rains to historical levels. However, what is certain about our warming planet is that historical trends are no longer a reliable indicator of the future. Vast areas of land are experiencing accelerated drought as the climate changes, with arid lands equal to the size of California being added every six months.

One of the surprising factors that may have contributed to this phenomenon in China is its success in combating pollution. It’s easy to forget, but ten years ago, news reports rarely lacked horrific pictures of cities choking on clouds of fine particulate matter rising from power plants. The strict campaign that began in 2013 led to a radical change in this landscape. By 2019, airborne concentrations of fine particulate matter, a type of pollutant linked to increased health risks, had decreased by about a third. This reduction is estimated to save hundreds of thousands of lives each year.

But this decline has other implications. All that smog was reflecting sunlight into space. Its disappearance means that more rays are reaching the Earth's surface, where they can heat the atmosphere. According to a study published last month in the journal "Communications Earth & Environment", more than 80% of the accelerated global warming since 2010 is attributed to the drop in sulfur dioxide as a result of the crackdown on fine particulates in East Asia.

Rainfall and Pollution Relationship in China is Directly Proportional

Fine particulates can also influence rainfall by forming "seeds" suspended in the air around which moisture gathers to form droplets and then storm clouds. These relationships are still not fully understood, but they may explain the drought period being experienced in the Yangtze River Basin. Researchers from Nanjing Normal University found earlier this year that rainfall in the region increases with industrial pollution and decreases with improved air quality. Furthermore, airborne concentrations of fine particulate matter in the heart of the basin decreased by half between 2013 and 2020, although they still remain above safe levels.

This points to a troubling possibility as Beijing began to plan its massive hydropower system as the only serious means to counter rising carbon emissions, before wind energy, solar power, batteries, and electric vehicles changed the game.

China Needs to Review Dam Plans

The dam construction plans were based on climate projections dating back to before 2013, when the weather in southwestern China was affected by the choking fog of fine particulates emerging from the first phase of the economic boom. The justifications supporting the Yarlung Tsangpo dam project, the last and largest of these projects, rely on rainfall observations that may already be beyond their expiration date.

If the current drought continues and the poor performance of the dams persists, China will be forced to make greater efforts as its citizens begin to run their air conditioning during the summer monsoon heat in a warming planet. Furthermore, its coal generators, which are currently declining thanks to the growth of wind and solar power, may continue to cause harm for a few more years. If the drought in the Yangtze River Basin does not break soon, we will all face the consequences.