The Interim Deal is Likely to be Finalized

Author: هاني المصري

Several indicators suggest that the interim deal will be concluded, likely before the end of this month, with the start of the Knesset’s summer recess, during which it is difficult to overthrow the government.

Firstly, because Netanyahu promised U.S. President Donald Trump to finalize the deal, but he needs additional time until the end of this month to avoid the collapse of his government. Trump, on the other hand, is pushing for the completion of the deal due to his regional and international priorities, and because of the widespread demands from regional countries, Europe, and even from the international community as a whole to reach an agreement.

Secondly, Netanyahu needs a political achievement to boost his popularity ahead of the expected elections at the end of this year, or, at the latest, by March next year, in order to avoid passing the budget in a year of elections where the bidding and populist demands increase.

Thirdly, the Israeli army is pushing strongly towards finalizing the deal, as it feels exhausted and believes that the war has reached a dead end and has exhausted its goals. The military establishment’s position in this context is clear, influential, and firm.

Fourthly, Hamas has shown notable flexibility compared to its previous positions, which can be understood in the context of the ongoing genocide and the need for a "resetting" of the situation, allowing for a breather and a realignment of ranks.

Fifthly, there are expected incentives for Netanyahu from the deal, such as halting his trial, making progress in the normalization process, or even U.S. approval for annexing parts of the West Bank, in addition to involving Palestinian, Arab, regional, and international parties in shaping the features of the "next day" in the Gaza Strip in a way that serves Israeli interests and goals or a large part of them.

Sixth and finally, internal pressure is increasing in Israel with the rise in casualties among the army. During June and the first half of July, dozens of soldiers were killed, which has increased public movements and calls to reach a deal that leads to the cessation of the war.

Yes, one should not exaggerate the impact of military resistance operations, but at the same time, one should not underestimate their importance and effect.