The Double Dilemma

Author: خالد طه

How did the strategies of Trump and Netanyahu fail to break the will of resistance?

A comprehensive strategic analysis of the conflict in Gaza, Iran, and the regional axis, along with its economic and social implications

 When the Zionist-American project crashes into the wall of resistance
Recent years have posed an existential test for the Zionist-American project in the Middle East, as the Trump administration and Netanyahu's government sought to impose a "comprehensive surrender" on Gaza, Iran, and the resistance axis (Hezbollah and the Houthis). However, this strategy faced geopolitical complexities and fierce resistance, leading both parties into politically, militarily, and economically intertwined dilemmas. This multidimensional study explores the roots of the current crisis and its prospects.  

Axis I: Requirements for Surrender - The Zionist-American Vision  
1. Gaza: Disarming the resistance and restructuring the geography  
- Complete disarmament of Hamas: Netanyahu insists on dismantling the military structure of the movement as a condition for any permanent truce, insisting on "de-militarizing Gaza".  
- Controlling the borders and soft displacement: Israel seeks to carve out the provinces of Rafah, Beit Hanoun, and the eastern border to turn them into permanent buffer zones.  
- Managing Gaza with "local proxies": Israel rejected the return of the Palestinian Authority and adopted the idea of a hybrid "Arab governance" that serves Israeli security.  
2. Iran: Destroying the nuclear program and overthrowing the regime  
- Striking the nuclear infrastructure: Netanyahu demanded written guarantees from Trump for future strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, similar to the American strikes in June 2025.  
- Changing the political regime: Netanyahu encouraged the Iranian opposition to overthrow the regime, exploiting psychological blows following the assassination of Revolutionary Guard scientists.  
- Neutralizing missile capabilities: Israel sought to destroy Iranian "hypersonic" missiles that penetrated the "Iron Dome".  
3. Resistance Axis: Drying up resources  
- Dismantling Hezbollah: Israeli Defense Minister Katz threatened to "end Naeem Qassem as his predecessors did" if the party intervened.  
- Subjugating the Houthis: Trump temporarily halted the Yemen war through the May 2025 agreement but maintained the option of air strikes.  

Axis II: Strategic Dilemmas - The Gap Between Goals and Reality  
1. Netanyahu's Plight: A War That Is Neither Won Nor Ends   
- The rift between Trump and the far-right:  
- Trump's pressures to stop the Gaza war clash with demands from ministers like Ben-Gvir and Smotrich to continue the annihilation.  
- The failure of strikes on Iran to break its strength has rather enhanced its deterrent capabilities after launching 500 missiles on Tel Aviv.  
- The judicial conundrum: The International Criminal Court's pursuit of Netanyahu over war crime charges undermines his international legitimacy.  
2. Trump's Dilemma: The Contradiction Between Rhetoric and Interest  
- The failure of the "big deals"  
- Trump promoted a "forthcoming" agreement in Gaza, but negotiation realities revealed his lack of actual pressure tools on Israel.  
- His plan for normalization with Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, and Syria is stalled due to Arab states' refusal to normalize without a Palestinian solution.  
- The cost of uncalculated wars: American strikes on Iran revealed Washington's inability to decisively resolve confrontations, leading it to accept a ceasefire after just 12 days.  

Axis III: Economic and Social Implications - The Cost of Losing Wars  
1. Israel: A Society on the Brink of Collapse  
- Economic collapse:  
- Ben Gurion Airport was closed for the first time since 1948 following Iranian strikes.  
- The ongoing cost of the war in Gaza (18 months) exceeded $60 billion, according to estimates by the Israeli bank.  
- Social division: Families of prisoners are protesting for the return of their sons while the right insists on "total victory".  
2. The United States: Diminishing Economic Influence  
- Erosion of trust in the dollar: The Houthis' use of ballistic missiles against ships linked to Israel threatens the security of maritime passages.  
- The cost of direct intervention: The "B-2" strikes on Iran cost the U.S. treasury $1.2 billion without decisive outcomes.  
3. Targeted Communities: Resilience Amidst Destruction  
- Gaza: 57,762 martyrs and 137,656 injured, with 70% of the infrastructure destroyed.  
- Iran: Tehran's success in turning aggression into an opportunity to boost its internal legitimacy after the historic missile response.  

Axis IV: The Cultural Battle - Narratives of Resilience vs. Narratives of Domination  
1. Deconstructing the "Supreme Power" Narrative  
- Hamas and breaking the Israeli army's prestige: Showcasing videos of its fighters with captured Israeli weapons and publicizing prisoner exchange operations.  
- Iran and redefining deterrence: The night of June 14, 2025 became a symbol of Tehran's ability to penetrate "Jerusalem" with dozens of missiles.  
2. Transformations in Global Public Opinion  
- The scandals surrounding the "Deir al-Balah" massacre (17 killed including 8 children outside a medical clinic) accelerated the shift in Western public opinion against Israel.  
- Western journalists described Netanyahu as a "fugitive criminal from justice" following the International Criminal Court's orders.  

Axis V: Confrontation Strategies - How Does Resistance Respond?  
1. Hamas: From "Defense" to "Effective Bargaining"  
- They refused to surrender their weapons despite pressures, linking any agreement to complete withdrawal and ceasefire.  
- They used prisoner cards as leverage in negotiations, releasing Alexander as a gesture to test Trump.  
2. Iran: The Theory of "Asymmetric Response"  
- Transitioning from "shadow war" to unprecedented intense missile strikes (500 missiles in 48 hours).  
- Disrupting cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency, sending a message of non-negotiation on the peaceful nuclear program.  
3. Hezbollah and the Houthis: Intelligent War of Attrition  
- Hezbollah maintains its threat to intervene if Iran faces an existential threat.  
- The Houthis reactivate the maritime blockade linked to Israel, sinking two ships in a week.  

Conclusion: The Scene in 2025.. The End of the Zionist-American Illusion?  
The American-Israeli strategy faces a multi-level collapse:  
- Militarily: Gaza's failure to break Hamas, and strikes on Iran failing to break its stronghold.  
- Politically: Netanyahu's international isolation and the fracture of the alliance with Trump.  
- Economically: Excessive costs without tangible returns.  
- Morally: Loss of global legitimacy after exposing war crimes.  

Axis V: The University Uprising and Reshaping the Palestinian Narrative - Generation Z Changes the Rules of the Game  
1. The Awakening of Generation Z: Redefining Palestinian Rights  
- The impact of the visual flood: The youth demographic (18-29 years old) has been exposed to an unprecedented influx of footage of Gaza massacres via "TikTok" and "Instagram", destroying the prevailing Zionist narrative for decades. In a Harvard Institute survey, 51% of American youth supported a ceasefire, while only 10% opposed it.  
- The New Narrative: Protesters transformed slogans like "From the River to the Sea" from an accusation of "antisemitism" to a symbol of liberation, utilizing art and theatrical performances on campus to portray the suffering of Palestinians, such as renaming a hall at "Columbia" after "Hind Rajab".  
- Digital Resistance: TikTok activists succeeded in exposing the contradiction between the rhetoric of "democracy" in the West and the support for annihilation, through visual comparisons between police suppression of students and the Israeli army's crimes in Gaza.  
2. Political Pressures and Electoral Sanctions: From the Street to the Ballot Boxes  
- The Fall of University Presidents: Protests forced the resignation of Harvard President "Claudin Gaye" after accusations of being lenient towards "antisemitism", while the President of Pennsylvania "Liz Magil" resigned for supporting students' right to criticize Israel.  
- Changing the Electoral Power Dynamics:  
- The victory of "Samer Li" (61%) over her opponent backed by the Israeli lobby in Pennsylvania, after a campaign that focused on stopping funding for the war.  
- Macron's popularity in France declined following the suppression of protests at the Sorbonne, while Kamala Harris had to adopt a critical speech toward Israel to attract youth votes in the American elections.  
- International Legal Pursuits: Student movements pressured their governments to support International Court decisions to prosecute Netanyahu for charges of "genocide", as in the lawsuit filed by Nicaragua against Germany for its military support to Israel.  
3. Total Boycott: From Academia to Economy  
- Academic Boycott:  
- The University of Copenhagen and Helsinki suspended scientific exchange agreements with Israeli universities.  
- "Trinity College" in Dublin cut its investments in companies linked to the occupation, challenging funding threats.  
- Historic Economic Boycott:  
- Investments worth $15 billion withdrew from companies like "Boeing" and "IBM" following student pressure, as "Portland State University" halted dealings with "Boeing" for funding the Israeli army.  
- The #BDS campaign caused $2.3 billion in losses for companies supporting Israel during 2024, according to a report by "The Economist".  
- Diplomatic Isolation: Israeli diplomats' participation in 30 international conferences was canceled following student protests, such as at the "COP 29" climate summit.  
4. Strategic Implications: Towards a New World Order?  
- The collapse of Western moral legitimacy: The university uprising exposed the contradiction between the slogans of "human rights" and repression practices, as seen in the French police's arrest of demonstrators at the Sorbonne under the pretext of "disrupting public order".  
- Geostrategic Transformations:  
- Student pressure has pushed countries like Spain and Norway to recognize the state of Palestine, while normalization agreements between Israel and Arab states have frozen out of fear of popular backlash.  
- South Africa and Colombia announced severing diplomatic relations with Israel in solidarity with the International Court's decisions.  
- A New Model of Resistance: The "Students for Justice in Palestine" (SJP) movement has become the largest student organization in the West, with 200 branches, training its tactics in universities in Turkey and Lebanon.  
Conclusion: Will Israel Witness the "Setback of 2025"?  
The university uprising was not just a transient protest but a seismic event that redrew the map of global support, as Generation Z transformed the Palestinian issue from a "marginal issue" to a "test of human conscience". This movement succeeded in:  
- Diplomatically and economically isolating Israel through unprecedented boycotts.  
- Changing the Western political discourse, as evidenced by Kamala Harris's criticism of "Israeli violations".  
- Creating a new generation of pro-Palestinian Western leaders, such as "Samer Li", who might become the President of the United States in 2028.  
"The student uprising taught us that the freedom of Palestine will not be achieved by rockets of resistance alone, but by the will of a generation that refuses to be complicit in crime" — Analysis inspired by testimonies from Columbia students.
The central question now: Can Washington and Tel Aviv escape this quagmire without imposing a greater cost on the peoples of the region? Indicators suggest that the era of unilateral dominance has ended, and a new Middle East is being born from the womb of resistance.  
"War is not won by airstrikes, but by the will of peoples who believe that freedom is more precious than life" — Analysis based on reports from Al Jazeera, BBC, and AA.