Will the Bennett-Lapid Alliance Succeed in Ousting Netanyahu?

SadaNews: In an alliance aimed at ousting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and opposition leader Yair Lapid announced the unification of their parties and their intention to contest the upcoming elections with a joint list under the name "BiHad (Together)". But will they manage to overthrow Netanyahu?

This alliance comes ahead of elections scheduled for no later than October 2023, amidst estimates that the unification of opposition forces may complicate Netanyahu's task of forming the next government, according to recent media reports and polling data.

What is the essence of Bennett and Lapid's announcement?

The two Israeli politicians declared at a joint press conference their party alliance of "Yesh Atid" and "Bennett 2026" into a single bloc - led by Bennett - to run in the elections with a unified list, in a move Lapid described as an attempt to "change the course of the state".

This is not the first collaboration between the two. They jointly led a coalition government in 2021 that ended 12 consecutive years of Netanyahu's rule, but it collapsed - after about a year and a half - due to internal political differences, replaced by the current coalition - led by Netanyahu - which is considered the most right-wing in Israel's history.

Observers see the current step as an attempt to repeat the experience of ousting Netanyahu, but this time through a more organized and stable alliance.

What is the nature of the new political block?

The new alliance can be considered a secular and civil Zionist bloc, combining "nationalistic right" and "liberal center".

Bennett emphasized that his potential government "will be based on a Zionist majority" and that he will not rely on Arab parties in its formation "because Arabs are not Zionists", referring to a change from his 2021 experience which included an Arab party for the first time in Israel's history.

The alliance also focuses on the issue of equality in military service, which is a sensitive topic in Israeli society, as wide sections demand the end of exemptions for religious Jews (Haredim) from conscription.

This issue has become more pressing amid the pressures faced by the Israeli army due to wars since October 2023.

What issues will the alliance address in the elections?

The new alliance has proposed a set of policies that represent its core electoral program, which includes establishing a formal inquiry into the failures of the October 7, 2023 attack, as well as limiting the Prime Minister's term to eight years, and addressing security issues, corruption, and reducing the cost of living.

Bennett affirmed that the first decision he would make - if he wins - will be to form a formal inquiry into the events of October 7, 2023, a demand opposed by Netanyahu who refuses to take responsibility for the failure.

He also announced that he would propose limiting the Prime Minister's term to a maximum of eight years, in a move aimed at preventing any leader from remaining in power for extended periods.

According to the basic laws in Israel, a Prime Minister can continue in office without a specific time limit as long as they are elected in every election cycle.

Will the alliance change Israeli politics?

Israeli analysts believe that the Bennett-Lapid party alliance could reshape the opposition camp in Israel by uniting religiously non-orthodox center and right forces within a single electoral framework capable of competing with Netanyahu.

According to Haaretz, this alliance is a step toward unifying the "reform camp" and ending internal conflicts before the elections.

During the joint conference, Lapid called on what he described as the "Israeli center" to support Bennett, stating that the latter represents a liberal right committed to law, arguing that their unity is in response to Israel's need for change after years of internal division.

The importance of this alliance is not only measured by the number of seats it may gain but also by its ability to build a coalition of at least 61 members in the Knesset, which is a crucial requirement for forming a government in Israel.

Who might join?

Bennett and Lapid are trying to present their new alliance as a nucleus for a broader bloc. Thus, Bennett publicly invited Gadi Eizenkot - head of the "Yashar" party and former chief of staff - to join them, telling him that "the door is open".

According to Haaretz, Eizenkot was informed of the move in advance and welcomed it, but he has not yet announced his joining.

Aviad Gadot, head of the "Yisrael Beiteinu" party, also welcomed the unification of ranks, considering the goal to be to replace the "October 7 government".

Ya'ir Golan, head of the Democrats party, also welcomed any unity within the camp but emphasized that his party will remain the democratic and liberal backbone of any future government.

What are the alliance's chances in the upcoming elections?

Israeli opinion polls indicate that the alliance has a real chance to challenge Netanyahu, but victory is not guaranteed.

A survey published by Maariv showed that Bennett's party alone tied with Netanyahu's Likud party at 24 seats each, while Lapid's party gained 7 seats, meaning their alliance could become the largest bloc in the Knesset with more than 30 seats.

Other polls have indicated that the opposition camp could secure around 61 seats - the number required to form a government - compared to less than 50 seats for Netanyahu's camp.

However, the Israeli press emphasizes that the path to victory is still uncertain.

The alliance is "not yet a political revolution" according to an analysis by Maariv, but a calculated deal between two parties trying to resolve their organizational problems.

The most important question remains whether the alliance will attract new voters or simply redistribute votes within the opposition camp, according to Maariv.

How did Netanyahu respond?

Netanyahu did not directly comment on Bennett and Lapid's announcement. However, he shared - via Telegram - a photo from 2021 showing Bennett and Lapid with Arab List leader Mansour Abbas, a clear reference to their short-lived coalition in 2021 that included the list.

He wrote in the post: "They did it once, and they will do it again." This could be interpreted as Netanyahu sending a message that their alliance will not withstand and that he will once again overcome them.