Report: Iranian Leadership Distracted.. and the Revolutionary Guard Imposes Its Authority

Translation by SadaNews - A report published by The New York Times indicated that the leadership in Iran is divided and distracted, struggling to make decisions and coordinate broad attacks and responses, according to intelligence assessments in the United States and other Western countries.

Some surviving leaders face difficulties in meeting or communicating out of fear of being harmed by Israel and the United States or having their communications intercepted. According to American sources as translated by SadaNews, the hardline forces within the Revolutionary Guard have gained greater influence than usual recently, even exercising more authority than the religious leadership that is supposed to be at the top of the system.

However, it remains unclear whether any party will be able to reach an agreement, and whether they can convince the other parties to agree to it. Estimates from previous American sources indicate that Iran will not agree to any deal until it incurs heavy economic losses due to the war. Although the losses are indeed severe, Iran may not yet feel that it is losing, according to the assessment.

According to the report: "It is also unclear how much control the Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has over the leadership, with some intelligence officials believing he may simply be a figurehead, while the remaining Revolutionary Guard leadership makes the actual decisions."

Senior American officials, as translated by SadaNews, stated that Iran's command and control system has been severely damaged, but even before the war it had established a decentralized system that allows field leaders to make decisions without daily instructions from central leadership. Iran is unable to launch a large barrage of missiles that would overwhelm defense systems, and instead, regional leaderships are forced to carry out uncoordinated counterattacks.

American officials reported that the Iranian government could not coordinate a response to American proposals, which displeased President Trump.

Israeli officials stated that communication problems in Iran are somewhat similar to those faced during hostage negotiations in Gaza, where proposals were passed through Hamas leaders in Qatar and then sent in writing to Gaza in a slow and complicated process.