Have Iranian Rocket Attacks Decreased... or Has Their Equation Changed?

SadaNews - Iran launched approximately 470 rockets towards Israel during the first 25 days of the war, while estimates indicate a relative stabilization in the daily firing rate. Nevertheless, the last seven days recorded an increase in the number of rocket attacks compared to the previous week, which included direct hits, human casualties, and extensive material damage.

According to the Israeli military, the first three days witnessed the launch of about 170 rockets, before the daily rate later declined and stabilized between 10 to 15 rockets per day. However, a slight increase in the rate of launches was recorded at the end of last week, with around 20 rockets launched yesterday, Tuesday.

The estimates of the daily distribution were based on the number of salvos detected, as detailed reporting has ceased since the first 15 days of the war. The Israeli army spokesman stated that Iran is firing "at a rate of about ten rockets per day," although the last seven days saw more than ten salvos per day, with a total higher than the previous week.

Nine direct hits by Iranian rockets were recorded during the first 25 days, including two in Tel Aviv, in addition to hits in Beit Shemesh, Jerusalem, Beersheba, Zarazir, Arad, Dimona, and Safed. Data indicated that four of these rockets struck their targets in the last few days.

Additionally, the data showed that 35 cluster rockets penetrated air defense systems, bringing down dozens of smaller munitions that hit more than 190 locations, most of them in central Israel.

According to the same data, these attacks resulted in the deaths of 15 individuals in Israel, along with the deaths of four Palestinians in the West Bank.

In parallel, the data indicates that the rate of gunfire from Lebanon has not decreased, as more than 220 rocket and drone launches towards northern towns were recorded in the last seven days, which exceeds what was recorded in the previous week.

These attacks resulted in the deaths of two soldiers during battles in southern Lebanon, in addition to the death of a resident of the "Misgav Am" settlement due to artillery shelling by the Israeli army, and the death of a woman from the "Merchavim" settlement after a rocket fired by Hezbollah fell near "Eilat HaShachar."

The data shows that about 5,000 Israelis were hospitalized since the war began due to attacks from Iran and Lebanon, while thousands of buildings were damaged, and approximately 5,000 people were forced to evacuate their homes, including about 1,600 in Tel Aviv, nearly 1,000 in Dimona, 650 in Beit Shemesh, 600 in Arad, and 500 in Beersheba.

These figures reflect the continued Iranian attacks at a relatively steady rate, alongside the recording of breaches in air defense systems and direct hits, despite a decrease in the daily launch density compared to the start of the war, while Israel and the United States claim to have inflicted heavy losses on Iranian rocket capabilities.

Timeline of Iranian Rocket Launches Since the Start of the War

The timeline shows, based on data from the Israeli military for the first 15 days, then estimates based on the number of daily salvos, the following distribution:

28/02: More than 80 rockets

01/03: More than 60 rockets

02/03: About 30 rockets

03/03: About 15 rockets

04/03: About 10 rockets

05/03: About 10 rockets

06/03: About 15 rockets

07/03: About 20 rockets

08/03: About 15 rockets

09/03: About 10 rockets

10/03: About 20 rockets

11/03: About 15 rockets

12/03: About 15 rockets

13/03: About 10 rockets

14/03: About 10 rockets

15/03: About 10 rockets

16/03: About 15 rockets

17/03: About 10 rockets

18/03: About 15 rockets

19/03: About 20 rockets

20/03: About 20 rockets

21/03: About 10 rockets

22/03: About 10 rockets

23/03: About 10 rockets

24/03: About 20 rockets