Israeli Estimates: Iran Will Not Attack Israel Unless Washington Intensifies Its Strikes... The Situation Could Change at Any Moment

SadaNews - Iran is avoiding attacking Israel during the current escalation and the mutual strikes between it and Washington. Israeli security officials say that "the Iranians realize that Israeli intelligence was accurate" during the June 2025 war and the recent war on February 28, and that "the Israeli target bank has expanded significantly during the past period."

However, the Israeli security officials noted that "the coming days will be decisive, as it will clarify whether the United States will move from threats to actions and change the nature of its strikes," according to what was reported by the "Walla" website on Saturday evening.

They indicated that "the coming days will reveal whether Iran will continue to keep Israel out of the confrontation, or if it will reintegrate it into its missile attack scope" targeting the countries of the region.

A security evaluation session held on Thursday and chaired by Israeli Security Minister Israel Katz, based on political directives, concluded that the army should prepare for the possibility of Iran launching a surprise attack on the country.

Israel estimates that Iran will not attack it unless forced to do so, as it recognizes that the Israeli response will be harsher and more severe than before, according to what was reported in "Walla."

The security officials stated that "the target bank of the Military Intelligence Directorate (Aman) has expanded significantly in the past period, the Air Force is on high alert, coordination with regional countries has strengthened, and the coordination mechanism with the United States is at its highest levels, allowing a quick transition from routine to emergency status."

"The situation is extremely sensitive and could change at any moment."

Meanwhile, about 100 American aircraft are expected to arrive in Israel for refueling, while the U.S. Embassy in Israel issued a warning urging U.S. citizens to reconsider their travel to the Middle East and to Israel in particular, due to what it described as "the possibility of an unexpected escalation."

Channel 13 reported that Israeli security officials stated that "there are currently no alerts regarding rocket launches towards Israel, but estimates indicate that the situation is extremely sensitive and could change at any moment if Iran feels it has reached a dead end."

A senior Israeli army official stated that "the Iranians are making great efforts to avoid involving Israel in the confrontation, but that could change if the United States intensifies its attacks."

At the same time, Qatari mediation efforts continue in an attempt to reduce the escalation, but officials from the political level in Israel estimate that they will not influence Trump's decisions in the near term, according to Channel 13.

Report: Dozens of U.S. fighters to bases in the region

The Israeli Broadcasting Authority (Kan 11) reported that the United States has started sending dozens of additional fighter jets to the Middle East, with a squadron of F-16 fighters landing in Jordan in the past 24 hours, while additional fighters are expected to arrive in the coming days at other bases in the region.

It cited an American official as saying that the reinforcements include F-35 and F-16 fighters, and their deployment is expected to be completed in the next few days after logistical preparations are finalized.

Israeli security officials emphasized that "if an escalation occurs with Iran, security needs will take precedence over any other considerations," referring to the refueling planes on their way to Israel as particularly controversial, especially those at Ben Gurion Airport.

Based on pressures from Israeli Transportation Minister Miri Regev, attempts will be made to reduce the arrival of refueling planes to Ben Gurion Airport, fearing the cancellation of flights.