International Energy Agency Revises Previous Oil Demand Peak Forecasts, Aligns Closer to OPEC Estimates

SadaNews - The International Energy Agency has revised its outlook regarding the approaching peak of oil demand, reintroducing a scenario that shows continued global consumption growth until the middle of the century.

Although all three scenarios that the agency focused on last year indicated stable or declining demand for oil during this decade, the new report reinstates the "Current Policies Scenario" (CPS), under which consumption is projected to increase by 13% by 2050. This scenario, which favors an upward trajectory in demand, is based on a slowdown in the pace of electric vehicle adoption.

US Administration Supportive of Fossil Fuels

The return of the CPS scenario after a five-year hiatus represents the latest reassessment of long-term oil prospects by the agency and the energy sector as a whole. This comes amid a US administration that supports fossil fuels and is directing its focus towards renewable energy sources.

The forecasts of the International Energy Agency, based in Paris and established after the oil shock of 1973, serve as a global reference relied upon by governments and energy companies for policy formulation and investment decisions. The agency's analyses this year could provide a realistic perspective for the delegates from participating countries in the UN-sponsored climate talks known as "COP 30," taking place this week in Brazil.

The "Current Policies Scenario" aligns more closely with OPEC's viewpoint, led by Saudi Arabia, which forecasts continued expansion in oil demand until 2050. OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al Ghais has repeatedly criticized the International Energy Agency, stating that the agency promotes a "anti-oil narrative."