Brazil to Host BRICS Summit 2025 Under Exceptional Circumstances

SadaNews - Brazil is preparing to host the 2025 BRICS Summit, which will be held on July 6 and 7 in Rio de Janeiro, under the slogan "Enhancing Cooperation Among Global South Countries for More Inclusive and Sustainable Governance." This year’s summit takes place amidst extraordinary circumstances, with trade tensions arising from tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump on most countries globally as the deadline for their suspension approaches, geopolitical disputes, such as the ongoing fourth year of the Russia-Ukraine war, and exchanges of attacks between Israel and Iran - a member state of the group - which concluded with Trump announcing a ceasefire between the parties.

1) Who are the notable absentees and attendees at the 2025 BRICS Summit?

For the first time, 20 member and partner states will participate in the BRICS summit; Brazil, Russia, India, and China, the four founding countries before South Africa joined in 2010, and Egypt, the UAE, Ethiopia, and Iran, which joined in January 2024, along with Indonesia that officially joined the group last January. Additionally, there are 10 partner countries: Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Nigeria, Thailand, Uganda, Uzbekistan, and Vietnam, which was announced as a partner country last month.

Russian President Vladimir Putin will be absent from this summit, after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant for his arrest in March 2023 on charges of committing a war crime related to the "illegal deportation of Ukrainian children" from Ukraine to Russia. Nevertheless, Putin will participate in the summit via video link, and he will be represented by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, according to the "TASS" agency.

For the first time, Chinese President Xi Jinping will miss the BRICS Leaders' Summit. The "South China Morning Post," which first reported the news, quoted informed sources as saying that Beijing attributed Xi's absence to a scheduling conflict, adding that the frequent meetings between Xi and Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva over the past year were also influential factors. Premier Li Qiang will represent the Chinese President at the summit and is expected to make an official visit to Egypt in response to an invitation from his Egyptian counterpart, Mostafa Madbouly, according to the "Xinhua" agency.

Apart from Lavrov and Li, attendees expected at the summit include: Brazilian President Lula da Silva, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto, as well as leaders from partner countries invited to the summit.

2) What issues and topics are expected to be raised during the BRICS 2025 Summit?

During its rotating presidency of BRICS this year, Brazil is prioritizing two topics: cooperation among Global South countries, and partnerships among member states for social, economic, and environmental development. Brazil proposes to focus political attention within these two topics on six key areas:

- Global health cooperation: Encouraging real cooperation projects among BRICS countries to support sustainable and inclusive development across multiple sectors, particularly health, ensuring access to medicines and vaccines, and launching the BRICS partnership to combat diseases associated with social determinants and neglected tropical diseases.

- Trade, investment, and finance: Studying governance and reform of financial markets, local currencies, payment tools and platforms as means to increase and diversify flows of trade, finance, and investment, implementing the partnership for the new industrial revolution, and adopting the 2030 strategy for economic partnership among BRICS nations.

- Climate change: Adopting the BRICS agenda for climate leadership, including declaring a leaders' framework on climate finance aimed at managing structural change in the financial sector.

- Governance of artificial intelligence: Supporting comprehensive and responsible international governance of AI to harness the potential of this technology for social, economic, and environmental development.

- Multilateral structure for peace and security: Supporting a global reform of the multilateral peace and security system to ensure effective action in dealing with conflicts, preventing humanitarian disasters, avoiding the outbreak of new crises, as well as rebuilding mutual trust and understanding, resuming diplomatic efforts, and supporting peaceful solutions to conflicts and disputes.

- Institutional development: Improving the structure of BRICS and enhancing its cohesion.

3) What challenges does BRICS face amid current economic and political conditions?

The challenges facing the group are numerous amid the current global environment. Particularly with regard to the ramifications of US tariffs on the global economy and its growth, in addition to geopolitical tensions in various parts of the world.

Internally, member states are divided in opinions on whether expanding the group will enhance or weaken BRICS influence at this time. Political disagreements also exist between some member countries, such as the border dispute between China and India, the conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, or between members and Western countries, such as Western support for Ukraine against Russia, and the Israeli attacks on Iran, in which the United States ultimately participated by bombarding Iranian nuclear facilities.

There is also significant economic disparity among BRICS nations, making economic integration more challenging. A report from "The Diplomat" highlights that while some countries benefit from strong economic ties, others face significant barriers to entering markets.

BRICS relies on consensus decision-making in the absence of an institutional framework, such as a general secretariat for the group, limiting its ability to make unified and rapid decisions.

The positions of members toward Western countries also vary; some maintain strong ties with the United States, such as India and Brazil. Meanwhile, Putin noted last year that the BRICS summit underscores the ongoing formation of a multipolar world, challenging the current global order dominated by the United States.

4) What about Trump's pressure on BRICS?

After weeks of winning the election, Trump warned the group’s countries, writing in a post on "Truth Social": "We ask for a commitment from these countries that they will not launch a new currency for BRICS, nor support any other currency to replace the strong US dollar, or else they will face a 100% tariff, and should expect to say goodbye to sales in beautiful America." This topic may be tabled at the group's summit.

Trump and his economic advisors discussed ways to punish adversaries and other countries seeking to engage in bilateral trade using currencies other than the dollar, including considering options such as export restrictions, currency manipulation tariffs, and trade tariffs, according to informed sources.

In response to Trump's threats, the South African government denied plans to issue what is termed a "BRICS" unified currency in early December, with a statement from the Department of International Relations and Cooperation asserting: "Inaccurate reports have emerged recently that the BRICS group is planning to issue a new currency, and this is untrue."

The statement added: "The issue is not like that; discussions among BRICS countries focus on using national currencies in trade between member states."

The ministry also noted that "South Africa supports the increased use of national currencies in international trade and financial transactions to mitigate the impact of foreign exchange rate fluctuations, rather than focusing on ceasing the use of the dollar."

For his part, Trump reiterated his warning to countries around the world in general, and BRICS countries in particular, that any attempt to replace the dollar will be met with enormous tariffs that would exclude them from American markets. He stated in a post on "Truth Social": "There is no chance that BRICS can replace the US dollar in international trade, or anywhere else, and any country attempting to do so should say hello to tariffs, and goodbye America!".

In addition to Trump's pressure on BRICS regarding the dollar issue, the implications of the tariffs on member countries are varied as the deadline for suspension approaches in the coming hours, leading to a baseline tariff of 10% for 90 days, with high tariffs effective starting July 9, and the US president expressing no intention to extend the deadline.

While Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam, and another with Indonesia expected to be officially signed on July 7, he also reached a trade truce with China in May for 90 days, ending in mid-August, during which Washington would reduce tariffs on Chinese imports to 30%, and Beijing would cut tariffs on US goods to 10%.

Additionally, he signed a trade agreement at the end of June with China to expedite exports of rare earth minerals and magnets to the United States. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnik clarified in an interview with "Bloomberg" that US measures imposed before talks in London, including restrictions on exports of materials like ethane used in plastics, chip software, and aircraft engines, will only be lifted once the flow of rare earth elements from China begins.

Regarding India, Trump hinted at the end of last month about a potentially huge trade agreement that would open the Indian market to US companies, but negotiations are tense over Washington's demand that New Delhi open its market to genetically modified crops, which India rejects due to concerns over local farmers. New Delhi also insists on no deal moving forward without addressing sectoral market access and reciprocal tariffs on its exports.

5) What hopes are pinned on the BRICS 2025 Summit?

There are high hopes pinned on the summit to be hosted by Rio de Janeiro. The "BRICS TV" network quoted statements by Xie Hongjun, a researcher at the BRICS Study Center at the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing, during an interview with the Chinese "CGTN" network, noting that the group’s mechanism has evolved from an initial economic concept to a comprehensive platform for cooperation.

Xie emphasized that he holds great hopes for the BRICS summit in Brazil, as it represents the first meeting of the group's leaders after expansion. He sees the summit adding new content in key areas of cooperation at the trade and economic levels.

He stated that the two main hopes are: "First, establishing a commission to enhance trade among BRICS countries aimed at harmonizing certification processes and customs procedures, which will facilitate trade, support sustainable development, and foster innovation in business among member nations. Second, enhancing the technology exchange mechanism within BRICS to support cooperation among member countries in areas such as new energy and sustainable development."

Xie believes that the three main topics to be discussed at the summit are: enhancing trade and economic cooperation, reforming global governance, and jointly facing global challenges through institutional development in BRICS, with a key focus on progressing in settling bilateral trade transactions in local currencies, organizing supply chains, and digital trade.

He added: "Of course, the governance of artificial intelligence will also be a key topic, as the fundamental question is how to ensure that the control over neural networks serves the interests of the entire world and is not restricted to a small group of countries."

The group is also expected to announce the creation of a new guarantees fund supported by the New Development Bank, aimed at reducing financing costs and enhancing investment. The initiative, akin to the World Bank's Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency, aims to address changes in global investment amid the uncertainties surrounding US economic policy, Reuters has revealed.

Source: Asharq