Is the unprecedented Saudi-UAE dispute developing into a new diplomatic crisis in the Gulf?

SadaNews - Saudi media are explicitly accusing the UAE of "betrayal" in a hostile tone not heard in the Gulf since the blockade on Qatar in 2017, raising fears of plunging the region into a new crisis.

This comes against the backdrop of recent confrontations in Yemen, where Riyadh and Abu Dhabi support different parties, as Saudi Arabia moved to support the internationally recognized Yemeni government against the separatists backed by Abu Dhabi.

For weeks, the gap between the two countries has widened amid continuous attacks in Saudi media and on social media against the UAE, accused of violating human rights, and even "betrayal" and "incitement".

In a report this week, the Saudi government channel "Al-Ikhbariyah" accused the UAE of "investing in chaos and supporting separatists" from Libya to Yemen and the Horn of Africa.

The Gulf has not witnessed such hostile rhetoric since Saudi Arabia and the UAE imposed a diplomatic and commercial blockade on Qatar in 2017 due to political disagreements, a rupture that lasted more than three and a half years.

Security analyst Anna Jacobs, specializing in Gulf affairs, says: "Saudi Arabia and the UAE have long experienced key points of tension, but they have now become apparent in a way we haven't seen before... The verbal exchanges on social media remind us of the recent Gulf dispute... Now, Riyadh is clearly highlighting its differences with Abu Dhabi's regional policies and shows no signs of retreat," according to what was reported by the French news agency "AFP".

In contrast, the UAE has largely remained silent.

"Betrayal of Partnership"

The two countries are traditional allies, and UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan has served as a mentor to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, in his political career.

The economies of the two countries are closely linked, with trade volume between them reaching about $36 billion in 2024, according to data from the Saudi General Authority for Statistics.

Saudi exports to the UAE exceed $23.2 billion. Saudi Arabia is the UAE's third-largest trading partner globally and the first Arab partner, according to the UAE Foreign Ministry.

Currently, commentators in Saudi Arabia, the largest economy in the Middle East, are accusing the UAE of supporting forces that conflict with Saudi interests in several disputes, such as Yemen and Sudan, while aligning itself with Israel, with which Abu Dhabi normalized relations in 2020.

Suleiman Al-Aqili, a political analyst who regularly appears on Saudi channels, states: "There is a deep Saudi feeling that the UAE has betrayed the strategic partnership with Saudi Arabia and is stirring crises in the Saudi strategic depth."

Al-Aqili points to "conflicting strategies" in foreign policy between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi as a major point of tension, according to "AFP".

Saudi writer Munif Al-Harbi accused on "Al-Ikhbariyah" that Emirati policy is "an Israeli project wearing Abu Dhabi's cloak".

Following the consolidation of their control over southern Yemen, Saudi-backed authorities took journalists on a tour of what they described as secret prisons run by UAE-backed separatists, a charge denied by Abu Dhabi, stating that they are military facilities.

Regarding the UAE's choice not to respond to the accusations against it, Emirati political science professor Abdul Khaleq Abdullah said: "Thanks to our success, we have become a model for the region... We have become a regional power. Is this our fault?"

He adds that "the UAE does not want to provoke Saudi Arabia and is not used to provoking its big sister... We did what was asked of us," referring to the UAE's rapid withdrawal from Yemen earlier this year.

Abdullah asks, "What do the Saudis want from us now?"

"Painful Economic Measures"

However, relations remain tense, and the channel "Al-Ikhbariyah" stated in a recent report: "With Abu Dhabi inciting against Saudi Arabia... the Kingdom will not hesitate to take the necessary steps and measures against it," without further details.

While analyst Al-Aqili rules out "cutting diplomatic ties," he says "Riyadh could take painful economic measures against the UAE."

Saudi influencers have already started a campaign calling for a boycott of tourism in the UAE, which has seen widespread interaction.

A user under the name "Saudi Dollar", followed by 32,000 on the "X" platform, wrote that traveling to the UAE "is sometimes a vote against policies we do not want to support".

Commercially, a famous luxury perfume brand in Saudi Arabia, "Dukhoon Emirates," announced the launch of a "new identity" offering several alternative names that do not include the name of the UAE.

Alongside the media escalation, political and security alliances have begun to form in response. The Emirati President met this week with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi, and the two countries agreed to work towards establishing a strategic defense partnership.

This step came after months of Riyadh signing a mutual defense agreement with its rival India, Pakistan, which possesses nuclear weapons. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated that his country is in talks to join this alliance.

In Sudan, another point of tension, Saudi Arabia and the United States proposed a new ceasefire proposal to the Sudanese army, according to a Sudanese government source, in an initiative excluding the UAE.

For a long time, the UAE has been accused of supporting the Rapid Support Forces against the Sudanese army, a claim that Abu Dhabi denies.

This month, Somalia canceled all agreements with the UAE, which supports the separatist Somaliland region, recognized by Israel as a state last month.

Nonetheless, Adam Baron, a researcher at the "New America" center, says that despite the "fierce" public attacks, "we still have a distance to go".

He adds: "I think this carries double messages: a signal for the possibility of de-escalation, while at the same time showing the capability for escalation."