Which Arab countries are affected by Trump's new tariffs on Iran?

SadaNews - The tariffs announced by U.S. President Donald Trump on countries "that trade with Iran" warn of economic consequences threatening major economic partners of Tehran, primarily China and several Middle Eastern countries, particularly the UAE, Iraq, and Oman, which could reshape supply chains and the regional trade map.

On Monday, Trump posted on social media that the new tariffs would be "effective immediately," without providing details about their scope or how they would be implemented.

In the absence of these clarifications, discussions about the economic impact on Iran's partners remain hypothetical, pending what the U.S. administration will announce later regarding executive rules, in addition to the legal framework governing this step.

In theory, Trump's statements place those countries under U.S. scrutiny, threatening billions of dollars if the term "trade engagement" is interpreted broadly.

The UAE: The Largest Arab Partner for Iran

The UAE is the largest Arab trading partner for Iran and the second largest globally after China, with a trade volume of 28.2 billion dollars in 2024. Data from "Trade Data Monitor" via the World Trade Organization indicates that the UAE accounts for 22.6% of Iran's foreign trade, making it the most vulnerable - in terms of volume - to any potential pressure if the U.S. threats translate into enforceable actions.

However, the nature of this trade, which includes extensive re-exports, makes any assessment of the actual impact contingent upon how Washington defines the activities subject to tariffs.

Iraq: Interconnected Energy and Trade

Iraq, Iran's historical partner and geographically closest, ranks fourth globally with a trade volume reaching 12.3 billion dollars, representing 9.9% of Iran's total foreign trade activity. In recent years, Iraq has relied on Iran to supply about 40% of its needs for gas and electricity, at a time when Iraqi infrastructure lacks the capacity to process associated gas for domestic use. Iraq is already subject to U.S. tariffs of 35% under Trump's decision to impose reciprocal tariffs with many countries in August of last year.

Baghdad will not be directly affected by the tariffs announced by President Trump, as there are no Iraqi exports to the United States of a commercial weight that would warrant imposing impactful tariffs, except for limited quantities of crude oil estimated at an average of more than 250,000 barrels per day, according to Muthar Muhammad Saleh, advisor to the Iraqi Prime Minister for economic affairs, in statements to "Asharq".

Saleh clarified that the Iraqi oil exported to the U.S. is essentially not covered by the tariff decisions, as it falls under the exemptions related to "energy security and global oil pricing mechanisms".

Currently, gas supplies have stopped due to Tehran's need for its gas resources due to falling temperatures and its refusal to supply over financial demands, according to statements by the Iraqi Electricity Ministry spokesman Ahmed Mousa earlier this week to "Asharq".

Oman: Trade Worth 2.3 Billion Dollars with Tehran

Although its trade with Iran is less compared to the UAE and Iraq, the Sultanate of Oman remains one of Iran's main regional partners, with an estimated trade exchange of around 2.3 billion dollars, equivalent to 1.9% of Tehran's total foreign trade.

"The trade exchange between the two countries has grown significantly, and in 2024 alone, it increased by more than 50%," according to statements by Qais bin Mohammed Al-Yusuf, Oman's Minister of Commerce, Industry, and Promotion of Investment, in May during a visit by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian to the Sultanate. The Iranian president then called for raising the trade exchange with Oman to 30 billion dollars over the next three years, emphasizing the importance of linking the economic pathways and ports in both countries.

Wider Implications

Iran's network of trade partners is not limited to neighboring countries but extends to major economies like India, Turkey, and China. The latest move could threaten to undermine the trade truce between the United States and China, Iran's largest partner with a trade volume of 32.4 billion dollars, representing 26% of Tehran's total foreign trade. At the same time, the threat comes while the world awaits a U.S. Supreme Court decision on the legality of the global tariffs imposed by President Trump, which could determine the extent to which the U.S. administration can implement this escalation policy.