Oil Prices Decline Amid Anticipation of a Possible Deal Between Ukraine and Russia

SadaNews - Oil prices fell after recording the largest weekly loss since early October, as traders assessed the prospects of reaching a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia, which could increase crude flows to a market facing the risks of a supply surplus.

Brent crude dropped towards $62 a barrel after declining by about 3% last week, while West Texas Intermediate crude fell below $58.

Following U.S.-Ukrainian talks on Sunday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the deadline proposed by President Donald Trump on November 27 for supporting Ukraine could extend to the following week. According to a statement from the White House, Kyiv viewed the plan as "reflecting its national interests."

Monitoring the Path of Sanctions on Russia in Case a Deal is Reached

Crude prices have declined this year, with futures contracts on track for a fourth consecutive monthly loss in October, marking the longest streak of declines since 2023.

This drop was led by an expansion of global production from OPEC+ and beyond, as the International Energy Agency forecast a record surplus in 2026. Traders are closely monitoring whether an agreement regarding Ukraine will be reached, and if sanctions on Russia will be lifted, which are developments that could add more supplies.

Robert Rennie, head of commodity research at Westpac Corp, stated: "If we reach an agreement here, which is a very strong possibility, the global supply glut will worsen once the sanctions are lifted."

He added: "We see Brent remaining capped above $65, and we expect it to trend lower by 2026, although this week will focus entirely on developments and the European, Ukrainian, and U.S. statements regarding how the peace plan evolves."