What is behind Russia's pursuit of dominance over Mars' moons?

SadaNews - Russia is striving to consolidate its presence in the space exploration race by increasing focus on Mars' moons.

While global space agencies are directing their attention towards the red planet itself, Moscow sees these small moons as a scientific and strategic opportunity that could pave the way for major discoveries and lay the groundwork for future bases or stations near Mars.

This was confirmed by American military analyst Brandon Weikert, who provides periodic consultancy to government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues, in a report published by the American magazine "National Interest".

Weikert states that the "Phobos-Grunt" mission, which is Russia's endeavor to explore the Mars moon "Phobos", represents a significant chapter in the history of space exploration.

This ambitious mission was launched in 2011, with the objective of collecting samples from "Phobos" and returning them to Earth, marking Russia's return to planetary missions after a long absence.

However, the failure that befell the "Phobos-Grunt" mission highlighted the immense challenges that accompany deep space missions, ranging from technical malfunctions to geopolitical obstacles.

Nevertheless, Russia is still considering potential plans for a subsequent mission to "Phobos" as this moon continues to capture the interest of Russian scientists, perhaps even more so than Mars itself.

Decoding the failure of the "Phobos-Grunt" mission

The "Phobos-Grunt" spacecraft, developed by the Russian space agency "Roscosmos", was launched on November 9, 2011, from "Baikonur" in Kazakhstan aboard a "Zenit-2" rocket.

The name "Phobos-Grunt" translates to "Phobos soil" in Arabic, referring to its main objective: to collect samples from the surface of the moon "Phobos" and return them for analysis on Earth. It would have been the first mission to return samples from one of Mars' moons, potentially revealing secrets about the formation of the solar system.

The spacecraft also carried the Chinese probe "Yinghuo-1" and a mini Finnish satellite, adding an international dimension to the mission.

However, tragedy struck shortly after launch; the spacecraft successfully entered a low Earth orbit but failed to ignite its engines for a maneuver toward Mars.

Engineers attributed this to a software bug in the flight control system, which may have been exacerbated by radiation damage or component malfunctions.

Despite frantic efforts to reprogram the probe remotely, communication remained sporadic, leading to the mission's inevitable failure, according to Weikert.

In January 2012, about two months after the launch, the "Phobos-Grunt" spacecraft re-entered Earth's atmosphere and disintegrated over the Pacific Ocean.

The failure cost Russia approximately $170 million and dealt a blow to the prestige of the Russian space agency "Roscosmos", which was already struggling from the effects of reduced funding after the Soviet era.

Subsequent investigations revealed systematic issues, including accelerated development, reliance on outdated technology, and inadequate testing.

The incident prompted reforms that included improved quality control and enhanced international cooperation.

Yet, the failure of the "Phobos-Grunt" mission is still studied as a case study in space engineering failures and is often cited in discussions about the risks of Mars exploration and Russian space missions.

Are the Russians planning a new mission to "Phobos"?

As of 2025, Russia has expressed interest in reviving its exploration of "Phobos", although concrete plans remain fluid amidst geopolitical tensions and financial constraints.

Following the 2011 disaster, "Roscosmos" announced the "Phobos-Grunt 2" project in 2012, aiming for a launch in the 2020s with improved backup systems and sampling capabilities.

However, like many Russian ambitions, progress on this new mission has stalled due to the Ukraine war and Western sanctions, alongside a shift in priorities toward lunar missions such as "Luna-25", which also ended in a similar failure in 2023.

Nevertheless, signs of a potential revival have emerged. In 2024, Russian officials discussed integrating "Phobos" exploration goals within broader Mars strategies, possibly collaborating with China on the international lunar research station.

While there is no specific launch date for a dedicated "Phobos" mission, the Russian space program for the period 2022-2030 includes studies of Mars' moons, suggesting orbital reconnaissance missions before resuming sample return operations.

Experts expect a new mission to "Phobos" by 2030, benefiting from advances in propulsion technologies and artificial intelligence to ensure safer trajectories.

However, NASA's success with the "Perseverance" rover and China's success with the "Tianwen-1" mission on Mars put pressure on Russia to demonstrate its planetary exploration capabilities.

Why is Russia so interested in "Phobos"?

Weikert states that Russia's passion for "Phobos" arises more from its scientific, logistical, and strategic advantages than from Mars itself.

This moon, one of Mars' two moons along with "Deimos", is an oval-shaped small body with a diameter of only 22 kilometers, and its gravity is nearly negligible, making landing and takeoff much easier than from the surface of Mars, where entering the atmosphere and enormous fuel requirements pose significant obstacles.

Additionally, a journey to "Phobos" requires less velocity change for return trips, reducing costs and risks compared to sample return missions from Mars.

Scientifically, "Phobos" is intriguing either as a captured asteroid or as remnants from a massive impact on Mars.

Analyzing its composition could unveil secrets related to Mars' history, its water resources, and the origins of life in the solar system.

Russian scientists, based on their experiences with the "Phobos 1" and "Phobos 2" probes in 1988 and 1989, which failed partly but provided data, see "Phobos" as a "cornerstone" for human missions to Mars.

Its sandy cover might contain martian ejecta, providing an indirect glimpse of Mars without the complexities of a direct mission to its surface.

Moreover, focusing on "Phobos" allows Russia to carve out a unique path in space exploration, avoiding direct competition with NASA's rovers on Mars.

This aligns with Russia's long-term goals such as establishing a Mars base, where "Phobos" could serve as a fuel station if water ice is found there.

This interest coincides with global trends, with Japan preparing to launch its upcoming (MMX) mission to return samples from "Phobos", reinforcing the moon's growing prominence.

Thus, even though the failure of the "Phobos-Grunt" mission in 2011 was a setback, it was not the end of Russia's dreams regarding Mars' moons, especially with the growing alliance with China’s ambitious space power.

Despite no confirmed near-term missions to "Phobos", ongoing planning reflects a relentless ambition.

Weikert concludes his report by stating that by focusing on "Phobos" instead of Mars, Russia is leveraging its unique advantages to achieve groundbreaking discoveries.

As space agencies worldwide pursue the moons of the red planet, "Phobos" remains a key frontier in unraveling the mysteries of the universe.