New York Times: The Attack on Iran Will Not Be Easy Compared to Venezuela

SadaNews - As the United States is mobilizing its military power in the Middle East, and President Donald Trump is studying various options against Tehran, experts warn that an attack on Iran will be complicated and will not be as straightforward as the operation that led to the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, cautioning that it could ignite a long-term conflict.

In this context, Ali Vaez, from the International Crisis Group, an organization focused on conflict resolution, told the "New York Times": "There is no low-cost, easy, or clean military option available in the case of Iran."

He added, "There is a real risk of American casualties," pointing out that this would be an important factor in Trump's calculations, "especially in an election year."

According to the American newspaper, Iranian leaders possess extensive military capabilities and a network of regional allies that could help them respond.

While the skies over Venezuela were clear before the American attack in January, Iran has one of the most diverse missile arsenals in the Middle East, along with drones and anti-ship weapons, though its stockpile remains unclear after the June war with Israel.

Iranian medium-range missiles can strike targets over 1,200 miles away, including American bases in Turkey and the Middle East.

Iran is likely to target major cities in Israel, especially after Tel Aviv depletes its stockpile of interceptor missiles in last June's war and in the Gaza war, according to the "New York Times."

For her part, Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, stated: "Tehran's strategy is rapid escalation and export of instability across multiple theaters to distribute the cost and pain."

Vakil added that Iranian officials believe that the "fear factor" of a regional war will compel Trump to think twice before attacking.

Iran's Arms in the Region

The newspaper explained that Iran manages what is known as the "Axis of Resistance," which includes the "Houthis" in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Tehran has armed these groups to expand its influence and challenge its regional adversaries.

Though those groups have been harmed by the ongoing war, they are capable of attacking American forces and their allies, which would complicate the confrontation and expand its scope, according to the same source.

An Iran-linked group in Iraq has pledged to support Tehran if Washington attacks it, while experts say that the Houthis may target commercial shipping movements in the Red Sea.

Rooted Iranian Leadership

In Venezuela, Washington was able to arrest Maduro and his wife in a two-hour operation, but in Iran, reaching the key leaders, especially the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, will not be easy.

The newspaper justified this by saying that "the true power in Iran is driven by ideology, supported by political conservatives, and reinforced by complex structures that have been entrenched for nearly half a century."

Vakil stated, "Achieving a similar operation to Venezuela might be difficult if the goal is to topple the leadership."