What is the Status of the Process to Repeal the Caesar Law?

SadaNews - On October 11, the U.S. Senate approved attaching the bill to repeal the Caesar Law to the 2026 U.S. defense budget, marking an important step and a significant advance toward abolishing the law that imposed sanctions on Syria during the regime of ousted President Bashar al-Assad in 2020, due to his involvement in the torture and elimination of thousands of detainees in prisons.

These violations were documented by a photographer who worked within security agencies and dubbed himself "Caesar" to avoid security prosecution, leading the U.S. Congress to impose sanctions on Assad's regime and Syrian institutions under the name "Caesar Law."

However, fully repealing the law requires the approval of the House of Representatives, which will discuss all provisions of the defense authorization law before passing it and sending it to the U.S. President for approval, making the lifting of sanctions on Syria effective.

The significance of the Senate's step lies in the fact that the current legislative path allows for the complete repeal of the Caesar Law if the House of Representatives agrees to the bill, rather than merely issuing executive decisions that only suspend the sanctions. Thus, re-imposing them would require new legislative steps and would not automatically return upon the expiration of any executive suspension.

Resorting to the Senate

Since the beginning of 2025, there have been two attempts by U.S. lawmakers to propose a bill to repeal the sanctions imposed on Syria under the Caesar Law, both of which failed due to internal U.S. balance issues.

In September, the House Rules Committee rejected including the provision to repeal the law within the U.S. defense budget. Syrian and regional lobbying groups worked on this option to save time rather than pursue a separate new bill, as passing the defense budget is usually straightforward.

However, adding the amendment was ultimately rejected in the House alongside other amendments that were supposed to be included in the budget, due to disagreements between the Republican and Democratic parties regarding the addition of other laws related to domestic U.S. affairs.

The Syrian lobby group, including the Syrian American Council, turned to the Senate, as there are several members within it who support the proposal to lift sanctions on Syria to ensure its stability and prevent the resurgence of ISIS.

The group hoped that the next step, after the Senate passed the amendment, would involve negotiations with the House of Representatives to pass the budget law with all amendments, especially since House Speaker Mike Johnson had previously stated that no attachments would be added to the defense budget law.

Optimism About Lifting Sanctions

There is a prevailing sense of optimism regarding the imminent lifting of sanctions on Syria after the Senate passed the bill to repeal the law with a significant majority. This step signaled support for the move among both Republican and Democratic circles, leading to the belief that the House of Representatives would also approve the repeal unless there are major and unexpected developments in the Syrian file.

Republican Representative Joe Wilson, who proposed the amendment to attach it to the defense budget law, stated, "Syria's success now depends on the complete and total repeal of this law."

Wilson, who is close to President Donald Trump, is a representative from South Carolina, a stronghold of the Republican Party.

For her part, Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen, a senior member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, considered the Senate's passage of the Caesar Law repeal bill a historical achievement in U.S.-Syria relations and a monumental step toward achieving stability, urging the House of Representatives to enact the legislation.

Adding the proposal to repeal the Caesar Law to a bill related to U.S. military funding itself increases the chances of passing the law, as the defense budget typically enjoys support from the arms manufacturing companies, which in turn exert influence over various members of both the Republican and Democratic parties.

The Syrian American Council expressed satisfaction with the Senate's approval of the repeal of the Caesar Law within the 2026 defense budget without adding any conditions, along with a phrase stating, "The Council's opinion is to reinstate sanctions if no positive progress occurs within 12 months of lifting the sanctions," which is a non-binding clause and does not mean that the law must be reinstated after the assessments issued by the U.S. State Department following its repeal.

According to diplomatic sources in Washington confirmed to Al Jazeera Net, there are currently communications between the White House and the House of Representatives to pass the amendment related to repealing the Caesar Law, but ensuring that the House and its Speaker do not obstruct the new law requires direct intervention from President Trump, who belongs to the same party as the House Speaker.

Sources also indicate a positive impression within the current U.S. administration toward the Syrian government, especially with the flexibility it is showing regarding the administration's demands for a security agreement with Israel.

Effects of Repealing the Caesar Law

The sanctions imposed on Syria under the Caesar Law in 2020 affected influential and vital sectors, most notably oil and gas, military aviation, including the purchase of new aircraft or spare parts or maintenance work, as well as construction and reconstruction projects overseen by the Syrian government during Assad's regime.

Under the law, the U.S. executive branch will also be obligated to impose sanctions on any foreign entity cooperating with the Syrian government in the sectors subject to sanctions or providing financial, logistical, or technical support to Syria.

Based on the above, the current Syrian government will be unable to attract projects, particularly in real estate, construction, and infrastructure repair, as long as U.S. sanctions remain in place. It will also be extremely difficult for the new Syrian army to procure spare parts for the armored vehicles and aircraft they possess, inherited from the previous regime, or even to purchase new weapons or obtain military technologies.

So far, the Syrian market has not shown any real activity from international reconstruction and contracting companies, except for some memorandums of understanding whose implementation depends on the sustainability of stability and the availability of a suitable legal environment, including the lifting of sanctions.

Syria is considered a potential important corridor for oil and gas toward the European market via the Red Sea. Many energy-producing countries view Syrian geography as highly important, including Iraq, which aspires to reactivate the Kirkuk-Baniyas oil pipeline that would facilitate the passage of Iraqi oil to Europe, providing Baghdad with an additional option alongside the Turkish port of Ceyhan.

However, repairing the pipeline, restoring it, and establishing projects related to oil refining close to export ports requires assurance from the energy-producing countries that they will not be adversely affected by the current U.S. sanctions imposed on Syria.

Economic experts also believe that repealing the sanctions imposed on Syria under the Caesar Law will ensure the availability of essential goods in the Syrian market with stable prices, due to reduced import costs and the diversity of markets that can provide these goods, in addition to allowing Arab and foreign companies to resume dealings with Syrian government institutions and companies.

Moreover, it is expected that the lifting of sanctions will have positive effects on the banking sector, as it will facilitate the restoration of banking relationships between banks in Syria and abroad.