As Tariffs Take Effect.. What Has Trump’s Trade Dream Achieved in Reality?

SadaNews Economy- "Tariffs are our greatest weapon".. With this statement made by Donald Trump on March 3, 2016, during a debate in Detroit, Michigan, the Republican candidate at the time announced his bold vision for reshaping global trade under strict American leadership, using tariffs as a negotiating and economic weapon.

During his first term (2017–2021), Trump partially translated this vision into reality by igniting a trade war with China and imposing hundreds of billions in tariffs on its imports, accusing it of unfair practices and stealing intellectual property. Even allied countries were not spared from this approach.

Upon his return to the White House in January 2025, specifically on April 2, Trump resumed his tariff project, announcing a broad package of tariffs starting at 10% and reaching 41% on imports from several countries.

Today, with these tariffs taking effect, we review the most important trade deals Trump has made over the past 128 days, those that he struggled to complete, and the most affected sectors by these tariffs, to assess the extent of success for the American president in turning his tariff dreams into actual reality.

China

After several rounds of a tough trade war, both the American and Chinese sides reached what was described as a trade truce, which includes suspending tariffs in some sectors, in addition to postponing the activation of some tariffs while some remain in effect as imposed previously.

On May 12, the two countries reached an agreement granting the world’s two largest economies an additional three-month period to resolve their disputes. Under this agreement, American tariffs on Chinese imports are reduced from a total of 145% to 30%, including the rate associated with fentanyl, compared to 34% in the "Liberation Day" announcement. China also reduced its tariffs on American goods from 125% to 10%.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Pisan recently warned that continued Chinese purchases of Russian oil could lead to "huge" tariffs on the country. Beijing quickly responded, with Foreign Ministry spokesperson Gina Kwan saying that China is taking "reasonable actions for energy security based on its national interests," adding that "coercion and pressure will not solve problems."

Trump also indicated that he is open to meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, provided a prior agreement is reached, adding, "I will meet with the Chinese president if we reach an agreement."

India

It can be described as having the most complicated trade negotiations to date, as American President Donald Trump imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods the day before yesterday, bringing it to 50% due to India's continued purchase of Russian energy, escalating tensions with a major Asian partner.

This trade penalty came even though India was one of the first countries to enter into talks with Washington following Modi's high-profile visit to the White House in February.

For its part, India expects to receive an American trade delegation on August 25 to continue negotiations regarding the trade agreement, after Trump imposed a 25% tariff (compared to 26% in April) on its exports.

Russia

We are expected to see new tariffs and sanctions on Moscow in the coming hours - as Trump threatened - if an official announcement is not made to cease the war in Ukraine, where the American president gave his counterpart Vladimir Putin until August 8 to end the conflict or prepare for severe punitive tariffs.

This comes despite Treasury Secretary Scott Pisan stating in April on Fox News that Russia is exempt from reciprocal tariffs, as the United States does not trade with it due to the stringent sanctions imposed since its invasion of Ukraine in 2022. According to official figures, total goods trade between the US and Russia reached about 3.5 billion dollars in 2024.

The European Union

Despite reaching a deal already, trade skirmishes continue fiercely between Washington and Brussels, as Trump threatened to impose tariffs up to 35% on the European Union, instead of the current 15%, if it does not adhere to its trade commitments with Washington, without clarifying the nature of those commitments or the deadline for their implementation. He said: "We will impose a 35% tariff on Europe if it does not fulfill its commitments," compared to 20% in early April.

In response, the European Union agreed to purchase American energy products worth $750 billion and invest an additional $600 billion in the United States above existing spending until 2028, allowing the countries' markets to trade with America without tariffs and purchasing "massive amounts" of military equipment.

However, promises for stability in European-American relations seem less convincing day by day, as pharmaceutical products remain subject to American scrutiny, and there are conflicting accounts regarding the future of tariffs on steel at 50%, according to Bloomberg Economics.

The United Kingdom

The United Kingdom was the first to strike a trade deal with Washington, as on May 8, Donald Trump announced the conclusion of a "comprehensive and complete" trade agreement with Britain, where the United States agreed to reduce tariffs on imported cars from the UK to 10% instead of 27.5% for the first 100,000 vehicles annually, and eliminate tariffs on steel from 25% to zero. In exchange, the UK pledged to increase duty-free quotas on beef and ethanol imports from the United States.

Japan

On July 23, Trump announced an agreement with Japan imposing a 15% tariff (compared to 24%) and an investment of $550 billion to rebuild and expand American industries, opening Japanese markets to American exports. In addition to the general tariffs, Japan, like other countries, is subject to additional tariffs of 25% on cars and parts and 50% on steel and aluminum.

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba considered the trade agreement "mutually beneficial," but implementing its terms may be more challenging than negotiating it. Japan’s chief trade negotiator, Ryushi Akazawa, acknowledged the validity of criticisms regarding the absence of any formal written agreement.

Akazawa said: "I understand that having a written formulation would be beneficial," adding that the agreements made by Washington with both the European Union and South Korea also do not include official documents.

South Korea

Trump reached a trade agreement after months of negotiations with South Korea imposing a 15% tariff (compared to 25%) on its exports to the United States, which includes Seoul's commitment to inject $350 billion into a US investment fund.

For his part, the South Korean finance minister stated that his country received a commitment from the United States not to face less favorable treatment than any other country if Washington moved forward with imposing new tariffs on the semiconductor and pharmaceutical sectors.

Thailand and Cambodia

Trump used trade negotiations as leverage to push Thailand and Cambodia to the negotiation table, threatening that Washington would not strike trade deals with either of them as long as fighting continued. After a ceasefire between the two neighbors mediated by Trump following border clashes, the United States imposed a 19% tariff on imports from Thailand and Cambodia.

Thailand offered a significant increase in its purchases of American goods that have local demand, including agricultural products, liquefied natural gas, and Boeing aircraft, aiming to reduce its trade surplus, which reached $46 billion last year. It also pledged to increase its investments in the United States, including a gas project in Alaska backed by Trump.

New Zealand

New Zealand seeks to reduce the 15% tariffs imposed on it, according to Trade Minister Todd McClay. McClay stated, "We will quickly reach out to American officials to clarify the issue and seek changes."

McClay said that the trade surplus "is not large... We have presented our viewpoint and will repeat it, which is that trade between the two countries is fairly balanced." He added, "This decision does not serve New Zealand’s interests, but it is also not in the world's interests."

Vietnam

The United States reached an agreement with Vietnam to impose a 20% tariff (compared to 46%) on its exports to the United States, along with higher tariffs up to 40% on goods suspected of being transshipped from other countries.

Vietnam estimates that its exports to the United States may decrease by a third, equivalent to $37 billion. The new American tariffs are damaging to most of the country's main industries such as electronics, machinery, clothing, footwear, and furniture.

Indonesia

On July 15, Trump announced a trade agreement with Indonesia under which goods from the country would be subject to a 19% tariff, down from 32% previously, along with Indonesia's commitment to purchase $15 billion worth of American energy, $4.5 billion worth of agricultural products from the United States, and 50 Boeing aircraft, mostly of the 777 model.

Brazil

On July 30, Trump delayed the imposition of a 50% tariff on Brazilian exports for seven days, exempting many products from these punitive tariffs. He clarified in the executive order issued at the time that these tariffs are imposed in response to policies and actions taken by the Brazilian government that threaten American national security.

The Philippines

The United States reached an agreement with the Philippines setting a 19% tariff on its exports. Trump had initially imposed a 17% tariff in April on the Philippines, a close ally, but suspended implementation to allow for negotiations. By early July, he threatened to raise the rate to 20%.

Canada

The full list of tariffs excluded Canada, as Trump stated that his country would impose tariffs of 35% on some imports from Canada, up from the previous 25% tariffs he imposed in early March under the emergency law. Although the two countries are considered long-standing allies and close neighbors.

Canada also responded to the United States due to the previous tariffs imposed by Trump. However, the American administration maintained exemptions for goods traded under the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA).

Mexico

On July 31, Trump extended the current tariff rates on Mexico for an additional 90 days to allow more time for trade negotiations with the southern neighbor. Trump then said, "The complexities of the agreement with Mexico differ somewhat from other countries due to border issues and origins."

Trump added that Mexico will continue to currently pay tariffs of 25% on fentanyl, 25% on cars, and 50% on steel, aluminum, and copper. Trump also imposed tariffs on Mexican goods earlier this year, but those included exemptions for goods covered by the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement, called USMCA.

Arab Countries

On July 31, Trump reduced tariffs on four Arab countries, which are Iraq, Libya, Tunisia, and Jordan, by between one to five percentage points, while Syria's rate remained at 41% (the highest tariff rate worldwide).

On April 2, Trump imposed a minimum tariff of 10% on most Arab countries, which applies to Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the UAE, and the rest of the region except for Jordan (20%), which was later reduced to (15%) and Syria (41%).

No Arab country has initiated direct formal negotiations with Washington to reduce or eliminate tariffs.

Sectoral Tariffs.. Starting with Steel and Extending to Gold

The tariff war is not limited to countries only. As part of the trade battle that Trump considers "necessary to protect national security," he targeted strategic sectors, starting with raising tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50% instead of 25%, beginning June 4, as well as imposing tariffs of 50% on copper imports, except for refined types.

The US government imposed tariffs on imports of gold bars weighing one kilogram, leading to a jump in the gold futures contracts premium in New York compared to the spot price when markets opened in Asia on Friday.

Trump also pledged to unveil additional tariffs soon targeting other strategic sectors, including pharmaceuticals and semiconductors.

Trump stated that he will impose a 100% tariff on imports that include semiconductor chips, with exceptions for companies that relocate their production to the United States.

Threats from Trump also included pharmaceutical companies, where he stated that tariffs on their products "will be modest at first," but could rise "eventually to 250%" if they do not correct their trade patterns with the United States.

On March 26, Trump announced that he would impose permanent tariffs of 25% on cars manufactured outside America starting April 2.

Once the new sectoral tariffs are fully implemented, they will cover between 30% to 70% of US imports, while country-specific tariffs will cover the remaining percentage.

How Do Trump’s Tariffs Affect the Global and American Economies?

On June 3, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development stated that the confrontational trade policies being implemented by Trump have slowed the global economy amid rising uncertainty, noting that the United States is among the most affected countries.

The organization, based in Paris, lowered its global growth forecasts for the second time this year, noting the impact of tariffs. It expects global economic growth to slow to 2.9% this year compared to 3.3% in 2024, and for the pace of economic expansion in the United States to decrease to 1.6%, down from 2.8%, a significant decrease compared to its previous forecasts in March.

According to an analysis by Bloomberg Economics based on the state of trade policies as of July 1, the Chinese economy seems the most at risk, with estimates indicating that more than 1.5% of the Asian nation's GDP is threatened due to the possibility of losing 70% of Chinese exports to the American market.

In conclusion, although the tariff policy has succeeded in bringing some countries to the negotiation table, the response has not been total compliance. On the other hand, the willingness of these countries to negotiate under American pressure can be considered a partial success for Trump, who managed to convert unilateral actions into real negotiation cards. Nevertheless, major countries, especially those with strategic positions in global supply chains, are seeking to balance American pressures with calculated negotiating and diplomatic moves, making Trump’s attempts to impose his will on the world a relative success rather than an absolute one.

Source: Asharq + Bloomberg