British Newspaper: Syria is a Battlefield of Intense Competition Between the US, Russia, and China

SadaNews - After 14 years of a brutal civil war, Syria finds itself today at the center of a new conflict, but this time it is not between local parties, rather among three major powers: the United States, Russia, and China, all competing for influence in this country, which is slowly recovering from long-standing devastation.

As the new Syrian government, formed after 14 years of brutal civil war, tries to piece together the fragments of the country, it finds itself caught in a confrontation between East and West, according to an analytical article in the British newspaper (iPaper).

Giorgio Cafiero, CEO of Gulf State Analytics, a geopolitical risk consulting firm based in Washington, noted that the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in December 2024 marked the end of a decades-long era, providing a rare opportunity for international powers that had been outside of direct influence in Syria for decades.

In light of this vacuum, Washington, Moscow, and Beijing are striving to establish new rules of influence within the new Syria, which is now being governed by a government led by Ahmad al-Sharai, the former leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.

A Historic Opportunity for Washington

The United States has long sought to bring Syria into its sphere of influence without success. However, Washington today finds itself - according to the newspaper's analysis - in a historic opportunity to achieve this goal, benefiting from the transformation in leadership in Damascus, which has declared its openness to the West and has effectively severed its ties with the Iranian-Russian axis.

Cafiero stated that this shift has significantly reduced the influence of Russia and China in post-Assad Syria, which Western countries are seeking to exploit by deepening relations with Damascus.

The author expressed his belief that US President Donald Trump's visit to Saudi Arabia and his meeting with al-Sharai, along with what Washington and European countries have done by lifting most sanctions on Syria, were not merely symbolic gestures but rather signals to establish a new relationship governed by mutual, albeit unequal, interests.

Damascus, which is seeking to repair its shattered economy, recognizes that its survival partially depends on support from Washington, but it does not want to be completely beholden to it.

The Only Option for Stability

However, Marina Kalkuli, a professor of international relations at Leiden University in the Netherlands, told the "iPaper" that al-Sharai "has entered into the American dependency system" because he sees it as "the only option for remaining in power and achieving stability for his regime and country."

She added: "To achieve this, he must keep Russia out of Syria, rid himself of the remnants of the Russian legacy, and of course not allow any Chinese influence."

Russia Seeks a Footing

According to the analytical article, Russia understands that losing Assad does not necessarily mean a complete withdrawal from Syria, but it is a painful strategic blow. Its military presence, particularly at the naval base in Tartus, has been fundamental to its maneuvering in the eastern Mediterranean and North Africa.

Currently, Moscow is trying to maintain a minimum level of influence through diplomatic channels, according to Cafiero, who pointed out that the meeting between Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shibani and his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov in Moscow carried double messages, as Syria wants Russia to stand by it on the one hand, and on the other hand, Moscow wants to maintain its relationship with Damascus, even in symbolic or indirect forms.

China and Investment Opportunities

China has long provided non-military support to the former regime, which may complicate its relationship with Damascus. Nevertheless, Beijing is seeking to expand its influence in post-Baath Syria.

As Syria needs hundreds of billions for reconstruction after 14 years of war, it will not be in a position to reject financing from China or other financially resourceful countries, according to the newspaper's article.

It does not appear that the previous support from China and Russia for Assad has provoked open animosity from the current leadership, as Damascus seems open to dealing with any country that contributes constructively to the reconstruction process.

Although the degree of China's involvement in Syrian affairs remains unclear - as the author states - it is no less ambitious than its competitors: the US and Russia. The enormous investment opportunities in the reconstruction of Syria represent a major incentive for Beijing, which aims to incorporate Damascus into the "Belt and Road" initiative.

This interest was manifested in two high-level meetings between Chinese and Syrian officials in Damascus on February 21 and March 26.

Walking a Tightrope

Despite these complexities, the current Syrian government does not seem willing to be dragged into a great power struggle, fixed alliances, or sharp rivalries, as stated by former Lebanese ambassador to Canada, Masoud Maalouf, to the British newspaper.

It is likely that Damascus will remain open to any party willing to contribute to reconstruction, provided they do not impose conditions that infringe on the essence of Syrian sovereignty.

Cafiero concluded his article by indicating that the re-positioning of post-Assad Syria is, in the end, not a declaration of loyalty, as much as it is a calculated attempt to survive, through which Damascus seeks to maintain its "fragile" sovereignty amid the intense competition among the great powers.