Report: Consequences of International Recognition of a Palestinian State Related to Israel's Reaction

SadaNews - A report issued by the "National Security Research Institute" at Tel Aviv University today, Monday, indicated that "the harsh scenes in the Gaza Strip and the continuation of the war that Israel refuses to end, along with its rejection of any political initiative, as well as the declaration of intentions regarding the annexation of areas in the West Bank and Gaza Strip and the expulsion of Palestinians from their lands and homes, are the reasons for the tsunami of international recognition of a Palestinian state, stemming from a growing global realization that the ongoing and bleeding conflict can only be settled by promoting the two-state idea."

The report reminded that Israel was established according to the United Nations Partition Plan for two states, one Arab and one Jewish, in November 1947, and that "from the perspective of international law and the position of most countries in the world, the right of the Palestinian people to self-determination corresponds to the right of the Jewish people based on which the State of Israel was established and recognized. The Palestinian state has not yet been established, and the borders of the State of Israel are not officially agreed upon."

The report added that the scenes of starvation, destruction, and crowds rushing to aid centers with empty cooking pots and starving children "are leading to a political collapse in Israel, and the gap between Israel's feeling that justice is on its side and its army is the most moral in the world versus the scenes coming from Gaza and in light of the severe international criticism against it has never been deeper."

According to the report, "In light of what seems to be a dead-end after two years of war, with the human suffering and widespread destruction during that period, a position is crystallizing within the international community whereby Israel and Hamas should have their veto power on advancing a resolution to the bleeding Israeli-Palestinian conflict taken away from them."

The report pointed out that "the international community is seriously dealing with the statements of Israeli ministers and quelling them in their infancy, regarding the annexation of areas in the West Bank and Gaza Strip and encouraging 'voluntary emigration' of Palestinians from these areas, which means managing the conflict forever. And in the view of the international community, there is only one way to work, which is to return to the negotiating table to agree on the terms of the two-state plan."

The report considered that the consequences of international recognition of a Palestinian state are related to Israel's reaction. "If Israel decides to take retaliatory steps, such as annexing areas in the West Bank and Gaza Strip or encouraging the emigration of Palestinians from these areas, it may face international sanctions and harm to its diplomatic and economic relations with Arab and Western countries, and the expansion of the 'Abraham Accords' will be frozen until Israel changes its policy and agrees to consider a political resolution based on the two states for two peoples plan."

According to the report, "Israeli opposition to recognizing a Palestinian state would restrain initiatives and preparedness on the part of Arab countries and the international community to work on stabilizing and reconstructing the Gaza Strip without Hamas's rule, and creating conditions for depositing control of the strip into the hands of a Palestinian Authority after undergoing reforms. This means that the burden of control in the completely devastated strip and on two million Palestinians will fall on Israel's shoulders."

The report predicted that "the Trump administration will continue to support Israel and use the veto against a decision to recognize a Palestinian state, should it be made in the UN Security Council; however, it will have a hard time standing by Israel for a long time against most countries in the world, especially if Israel responds with extreme measures involving pushing the Palestinian Authority to collapse economically and implementing annexation."

It added that "the Israeli government prevents empowering the Palestinian Authority and restoring it to control in the Gaza Strip, as it considers that a lever for establishing a Palestinian state. However, international recognition of a Palestinian state will bolster the diplomatic status of the Authority and allow it access to international bodies and courts, and thus the Israeli incentive for causing an economic and functional collapse of the Authority will increase, as is currently happening through preventing the transfer of clearance allocations and imposing restrictions on banking activities. The collapse of the Authority means that Israel will bear the burden of the lives of the population in the West Bank."

The report concluded that "Israel's refusal to reach a resolution to the conflict with the Palestinians will accelerate and escalate the political tsunami against it, including its security and economic repercussions. In contrast, if the Israeli government opts for a political denouncement of a unilateral international initiative, but without provocative steps, it would be able to face rising diplomatic and security challenges while managing complex international relations."