The Israeli Army's Next Plan: Tomorrow is Worse

The announcement by the Planning Division of the Israeli Defense Forces General Staff regarding the launch of the first phase of the upcoming "Hoshin" five-year plan reflects what is on the minds of the Israeli security establishment concerning the restructuring of the military in the coming years, influenced by the war on the Gaza Strip and other fronts, and most importantly regarding the military power-building program post-war.

According to what has been published in the Israeli media, the army's vision is based on the inevitability of the upcoming military confrontation, hence there should be a focus on the necessary preparations for it from the military standpoint and their completion. Perhaps the most prominent conclusion that the military establishment openly admits in the course of announcing the launch of this new five-year plan is that the future requires possessing more power. It is worth recalling that this same conclusion was evident during the preparation of previous military plans, yet it was also accompanied by another conclusion, which stated that "protecting Israel is also possible through peace," expressed by a significant number of Israeli analysts. However, now, most analysts have chosen to discuss the risks and expected nature of the upcoming war rather than the prospects of peace. Thus, this majority aligns with the estimates of both the political and security establishments that tomorrow is worse, particularly from a security perspective.

Based on the general impression that can be drawn from what has been published on the Israeli occupation army's website, and what has been, in some way, included in the analyses of military commentators in Israel, the new five-year plan for the army generally gathers the core principles of the army at a fairly equal level of importance. Notably, at its center are the soldiers and the deepening of specialization in ground combat, which means a return to the "essentials of military work," according to one military analyst's expression, after previous plans included reducing ground forces due to the fading threat of conventional war on all of Israel's border fronts, most recently the Syrian front, which necessitated an increase in spending on projects primarily related to intelligence agencies and advanced combat capabilities of aerial, ground, and naval forces, as well as projects related to cyber warfare in various aspects, particularly intelligence gathering, defense, and offense. All this, alongside what can be considered a renewed vision for the future wars that rely on advanced technology, including the introduction of artificial intelligence, the integration of robotics, and the use of highly destructive weapons.

Regarding the changes this new plan will bring about in building the Israeli army's strength, focus has been placed on two new arenas that were not included in previous plans: the first is the space arena, where since the Iranian attack in April 2024, a comprehensive plan has been promoted to launch dozens of small satellites into space, which will photograph and provide a complete picture of what is happening across the Middle East, from the Horn of Africa through Iran and neighboring countries. There is a promotion in Israel that this system allows knowing what is happening in every street and neighborhood in the Gaza Strip, providing early and accurate warnings before any missile launch from Iran, Yemen, Lebanon, allowing interception and radar systems to receive a more precise "green light" to strike missiles from distances far from Israeli territory.

The second is the maritime arena, which was proven in the recent war, according to the justifications of the plan, to be of great importance, not only in defense and intercepting drones coming from Yemen, Iran, Lebanon, Gaza, and Syria but also in offense, where naval vessels during ground maneuvers in Gaza and Lebanon formed a firepower and reconnaissance force from the western side, as the naval arm has better capabilities for fire control and continuous monitoring over long distances in combat zones far from Israel's borders. For this reason, the Israeli army plans to significantly expand the combat naval fleet.