China Loses 3.39 Million People in One Year: Unprecedented Birth Crisis

SadaNews- In 2025, China recorded a decline in its population for the fourth consecutive year, reflecting a concerning demographic trend that signals a worsening birth crisis and an accelerating aging of society, despite a series of government measures aimed at encouraging marriage and childbirth.

The National Bureau of Statistics of China reported that the total population decreased by 3.39 million in 2025, reaching approximately 1.405 billion, marking a faster decline compared to 2024.

This drop coincides with the number of births falling to its lowest level since the founding of the People's Republic of China in 1949.

According to official data, the number of registered births in 2025 was only about 7.92 million, a decrease of 17% compared to 2024, which saw 9.54 million births.

The birth rate fell to 5.63 per thousand people, while the number of deaths rose to 11.31 million compared to 10.93 million the previous year, increasing the mortality rate to 8.04 per thousand, the highest rate since 1968.

Demography expert Yi Fuxian from the University of Wisconsin-Madison stated that the number of births in 2025 is nearly equivalent to levels recorded in 1738, when China's population did not exceed 150 million, suggesting that the country has entered a phase of sharp demographic decline that is difficult to reverse in the near term.

China's population numbers have been declining since 2022, while the aging population accelerates, adding increasing burdens on Beijing's plans to boost domestic consumption and contain debt.

National statistical data indicates that about 23% of the population is over the age of 60. The number of people aged over 60 is expected to rise to around 400 million by 2035, almost equivalent to the total populations of the United States and Italy.

This demographic shift poses a direct challenge to China's labor market and pension system, as hundreds of millions are expected to exit the workforce in the coming years, while pension funds are increasingly under pressure.

In an attempt to alleviate the crisis, the government has already started to gradually raise the retirement age, allowing men to work until age 63 instead of 60 and women until age 58 instead of 55.

Data also showed that the number of marriages in China decreased by about 20% in 2024, the largest recorded decline, with the number of marriages not exceeding 6.1 million compared to 7.68 million in 2023. Marriage is a key indicator of birth rates in the country, heightening concerns about continued population decline.

Nevertheless, preliminary indicators suggest a limited improvement during 2025, following a government decision issued in May allowing marriage registration anywhere in the country, not just in the place of residence.

Thus, the number of marriages in China during the third quarter of 2025 rose by 22.5% compared to the same period of the previous year, reaching about 1.61 million, a development that suggests a potential halt to the annual decline in marriage rates that has persisted for nearly 10 years.

Full data for 2025 is expected to be released later this year, which will clarify whether this increase represents a sustainable shift or a temporary rise.

Authorities are also trying to promote what they describe as "positive values of marriage and childbirth" in an effort to address the long-term social effects of the one-child policy implemented between 1980 and 2015, which helped reduce poverty rates but altered the structure of families and society.

Demographic challenges in China have been exacerbated by rapid urbanization, as millions of Chinese have moved from rural areas to cities, where the costs of living and raising children are higher. Urbanization in China reached about 68% in 2025, compared to about 43% in 2005.

Beijing has made population planning a central focus of its economic strategy, with estimates suggesting that the cost of policies aimed at raising birth rates could reach around 180 billion yuan (approximately 25.8 billion dollars) annually.

These costs include national child subsidies, which were launched last year, as well as the government's commitment to cover all medical expenses for women during pregnancy starting in 2026, including infertility treatments.

China currently has one of the lowest fertility rates in the world, with an average of about one child per woman, well below the replacement rate of 2.1. Other East Asian countries, such as South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore, are experiencing similarly low levels.

The United Nations expects the number of women of childbearing age in China to decline by more than two-thirds, falling to below 100 million women by the end of this century, raising concerns about ongoing population shrinkage in the long term despite government efforts to stop this trend.