Israeli Army Warns: The Iranian Regime Remains in Control

SadaNews - Israeli military sources stated that the Iranian regime's handling of the wave of protests as popular demonstrations rather than a coup or existential threat reveals the nature of decision-making in Tehran, and at the same time confirms the wide scope of the protests.

The sources clarified that this does not mean the absence of violence or targeting civilians but reflects the regime's conviction that it still controls the situation, according to a report broadcast by Channel 12 on Tuesday.

The report indicated that Israel understands that the intelligence picture regarding what is happening in Iran is partial, and that the information coming from inside is limited and difficult to verify for accuracy or distinguish between the ground reality and what is published in the news. Due to the internet blackout and the Iranian authorities' control over the flow of information, the sources emphasized the need to question the numbers and reports coming out of Iran.

The report pointed out a disparity between the assessments of the Israeli army and the narratives of some politicians who may find exaggerating the strength of the protests a means to serve their interests. It also noted that certain security and political figures in Israel are providing media briefings calling for attacks on Iran and portraying the internal situation there as extremely difficult, aiming to pressure the United States into taking military steps.

Conversely, some Israeli military officials criticize these briefings, considering the assessments to be based on scant information, and that attacking Iran may not necessarily lead to the regime's downfall. This disparity led the Israeli army spokesperson, Aviv Difrin, to issue an unusual statement affirming that the army is closely monitoring developments in Iran and the region, and that it is in a high state of readiness for any scenario, coordinating continuously with the United States, but refraining from engaging with specific scenarios.

The military sources explained that even if a U.S. attack were launched, the intended targets in Iran are unclear, and a limited or extensive military operation could reinforce the regime rather than topple it. They confirmed that bringing down the regime requires millions of Iranians to take to the streets and a stable opposition leadership, which is currently unavailable.

Nevertheless, Israeli assessments indicate that the United States is close to deciding on the potential for launching an attack against Iran, with initial signs of ongoing preparations, but this remains within the framework of preparations and not a final decision. The sources stressed that any U.S. attack would likely result in an Iranian response by launching missiles and drones towards Israel.

The sources clarified that executing a U.S. attack requires mobilizing substantial air and intelligence forces, which takes time and is not done immediately. The channel quoted one officer saying: "The Americans do not press a button and attack; the battle is complex, long-range, and has significant regional and international repercussions, and it may be short but continuous."

Despite documentation of Iranian security forces using live ammunition against protesters, the Israeli army believes that the regime in Tehran has not yet resorted to what is termed "heavy artillery," meaning the full utilization of security forces, including the Revolutionary Guard extensively, or imposing long shutdowns, or taking exceptional steps that may reflect a genuine fear of a coup.