Climate Experts: Returning to the 1.5-Degree Target is Still Possible

SadaNews - A new assessment study indicates that there is still a chance for the world to avoid the worst consequences of climate collapse and return to the 1.5-degree Celsius target if governments take coordinated action on greenhouse gas emissions.

The study published by the "Climate Analytics" center states that government targets are insufficient and need to be revised quickly, along with a rapid expansion in the use of renewable energy and electricity in key sectors, including transportation, heating, and industry.

World leaders are scheduled to meet in Belém, a small city near the mouth of the Amazon River in Brazil, today and tomorrow to discuss the global climate crisis, ahead of the UN's "Cop 30" climate conference starting on November 10 and continuing until the 21st.

Temperatures in 2024 have already exceeded the 1.5-degree Celsius limit for global warming above pre-industrial levels, which was set in the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement.

A report released by the United Nations Environment Program this week confirmed that current plans published by national governments could lead to a rise in global temperatures of between 2.3 degrees Celsius and 2.5 degrees Celsius.

According to climate experts and scientists, reaching this level could lead to massive increases in extreme weather and devastating damage to some of the world's major ecosystems and natural systems.

The group of researchers from the Climate Analytics center states that their roadmap could ensure that temperatures rise to 1.7 degrees Celsius before 2050.

They believe it could potentially decrease to 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century through a phased-out reliance on fossil fuels and the use of carbon removal technologies to absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

Dangerous Tipping Points

Scientists are aware of the dangers of reaching several key climate tipping points, such as the melting of the Greenland ice sheet, the possibility of the Amazon rainforest turning from a carbon sink into a source of carbon release into the atmosphere, and the collapse of coral reefs, which could arise from rising earth temperatures.

It is unclear at what temperatures these tipping points may occur, as every fraction of a degree of warming poses a risk. According to a recent study, a major tipping point of coral bleaching in warm seas and oceans may have already been reached.

Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics, states: "Exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius is a monumental political failure, and it will exacerbate damage and expose us to tipping points that could have been avoided otherwise. However, this roadmap shows that we can still reduce warming to well below 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2100."

He emphasizes, "We must do everything we can to limit any time we spend above this safety threshold to reduce the risks of irreversible climate damage and the destruction that may arise from crossing tipping points."

At Cop 30, which is hosted by Brazil, all countries are expected to submit national climate plans under the 2015 Paris Agreement known as "nationally determined contributions."

These plans aim to set targets for reducing carbon emissions and the necessary measures to achieve them. However, less than half of the countries submitted their nationally determined contributions ahead of Cop 30, and many of those submitted are inadequate.

An analysis conducted by the United Nations Environment Program concluded that current nationally determined contributions would lead to an increase in global temperatures of about 2.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, and this could rise to 2.8 degrees Celsius, a level that would lead to irreversible changes.

According to the United Nations, current nationally determined contributions would result in only about a 10% reduction in carbon emissions by 2035.

According to Climate Analytics, global emissions need to be reduced by about one-fifth by 2030 compared to 2019 levels, and by 11% annually by 2030 to limit global warming to 1.7 degrees Celsius, while methane emissions must be cut by 30% by 2035.

Neil Grant, a senior expert at the center, states that valuable time has been wasted in the last five years in this crucial decade of climate action.

He points out that this period has also seen a revolution in renewable energy sources and batteries, affirming that harnessing these favorable winds can help secure a clean energy future for humanity and compensate for lost time, according to his estimate.

Source: Reuters