"Adonis".. Is He Approaching the Nobel Prize?

SadaNews - A few days before the announcement of the Nobel Prize for Literature, the name of Syrian poet Adonis (Ali Ahmad Said Asbar) returns to circulation as one of the most prominent potential candidates, in a season where speculations usually fill the global literary space, while the Swedish Academy remains silent as usual.

After a career spanning more than seven decades, 95-year-old Adonis seems like a perpetual shadow hovering around the prize without ever touching it. He is one of the most translated and present Arab poets in the West, and a symbol of a complete phase of poetic modernity that sought to deconstruct and rebuild the Arabic language from within.

Nevertheless, the question remains every autumn: will the Swedes finally award the prize next Thursday to the poet who has been redefining Arabic poetry and its place in the world since the 1960s?

Cultural Influence Across Languages

Born in 1930 in northern Syria, Adonis emerged from a young age as a different voice in Arabic poetry. In his early works, such as "Songs of the Damascene Mihyar", he created a language that rebelled against traditional meter and rhetoric, drawing on mythology and confronting religious and political heritage. Over the years, he combined poetry, criticism, and thought, publishing influential books such as "The Immutable and the Mutable," which is now read as a reference text in the critique of Arab culture.

In the West, major publishing houses have translated his works into French, English, and German, and he is often presented at European festivals as one of the "voices that gave Arabic a global dimension". He has received prestigious awards, including the German "Goethe" award and the American "PEN/Nabokov" award, which are usually precursors to potential Nobel recognition.

However, recognition from awards does not guarantee a path to the Swedish Academy, which often surprises with unexpected choices.

2025 Competition... A Multifaceted Landscape

While supporters of Arabic poetry bet on a delayed recognition for Adonis, literary prediction lists indicate other names rising ahead of him in likelihood, including Hungarian novelist Laszlo Krasznahorkai, Canadian Anne Carson, Japanese Haruki Murakami, and Romanian Mircea Cartarescu.

Krasznahorkai, winner of the International Man Booker Prize and the U.S. National Book Award for Translated Literature, enjoys a wide reputation in Europe as a writer with a deep philosophical and experimental breath.

As for Anne Carson, she represents the other face of contemporary literature. She is a Canadian poet and academic who writes in an intense and metaphorical language, blending Greek classics with modern experimentation.

Murakami, who has been a constant contender for two decades, carries the burden of excessive popularity, with some critics arguing that the Academy avoids choosing a writer who has become a commercial phenomenon.

Among these names, Adonis stands as a voice from outside the European center, carrying with him a rare language in the Nobel record since Naguib Mahfouz's win in 1988.

Language and Political Memory

Literary prospects cannot be separated from the cultural politics of language. Despite its richness, Arabic remains distant from the Swedish critical scene, and most Academy members rely on French or English translations of Adonis's works, which puts an interpretive layer between the text and its author that may affect the evaluation.

There is also the weight of the political dimension: Adonis's positions on the Syrian revolution in 2011 sparked division in Western cultural circles. Some viewed him as a critic of violence and religiosity, while others considered his silence about the Syrian regime a form of complicity.

This conflicting image makes him a "problematic" figure at a time when the Swedish Academy has become more sensitive to political controversy, following the criticism it faced after awarding the prize to Austrian writer Peter Handke in 2019.

Adonis finds himself caught in the midst of a public debate; although the Academy claims the prize is decided on literary grounds rather than political ones, previous experiences have shown that controversy can cast shadows over choices or their reception, as occurred in the Peter Handke case in 2019.

Handke's Shadow in the Background

Since 2019, the Swedish Academy has approached controversial names with heightened caution, following the widespread criticism it faced after awarding the prize to Austrian writer Handke, known for his supportive positions towards the late Serbian leader Slobodan Milošević during the Bosnian War.

Despite the Academy defending its decision at the time as strictly "literary", the political and media backlash - from human rights organizations and European governments - created a crisis of confidence that lasted for years.

Since then, the committee has avoided entering into similar disputes that could put it at odds with international public opinion.

Thus, Adonis's positions on the Syrian revolution, sometimes described as ambiguous or critical of the religious dimension, might provoke similar reservations within the Academy, even if this is not officially declared.

The decision currently under consideration by the committee does not pertain solely to poetry but also to the institution's image before the world, which makes any candidate with political baggage subject to careful consideration before being included in the final list.

Hidden Criteria... What Lies Beyond the Text

The Nobel Prize for Literature is not awarded in a vacuum. The decision is made by the Swedish Academy after a lengthy discussion that blends the literary with the cultural and political. Therefore, Adonis's position today is also measured by his relationship with the Western cultural world that gives the prize a symbolic meaning alongside artistic value.

Here, readings diverge. His supporters see him as a symbol of global poetic modernity, while his critics regard him as an elitist poet, sometimes politically conservative regarding some Arab revolutions.

Perhaps this gray position - especially regarding the Syrian revolution - has made his image in Western media contradictory; he sometimes appears as a voice of enlightenment and rationality, while at other times he is viewed as a symbol of detachment and intellectual alienation from his reality and society.

Prospects in a Crowded Season

Despite Adonis's significant status in Arabic culture, most observers believe his chances of winning this year are slim. Reasons range from the limited academic presence of Arabic literature in Sweden to the lack of new translations of his works in recent years, in addition to the Academy's recent focus on broadening its map toward writers from Central Asia, Latin America, and Eastern Europe.

In contrast, both Hungarian novelist Krasznahorkai and Canadian poet Carson enjoy renewed critical momentum, while Japanese novelist Haruki Murakami and Romanian poet and novelist Mircea Cartarescu continue to attract a wide global audience. All of this tilts the balance for 2025 toward names that carry more contemporary literary vitality than historical symbolism.

In general, there are no strong indicators yet that Adonis will be the winner this year. His name remains present in annual speculations, but it has never transformed into a declared nomination or a reliable leak from within the Academy.

Despite his historical significance in modern Arabic poetry, his impact within the global literary scene appears limited compared to names like Krasznahorkai or Carson, who enjoy ongoing critical momentum and academic presence in European languages.

Literary analysts point out that the absence of new translations of Adonis's works into Swedish and English in recent years reduces the chances of evaluating his achievement in the context of the Nobel Prize, which relies primarily on current critical reception within Europe.

Conversely, others believe that the prize in recent years has leaned towards rewarding actively translated literature and renewed academic presence rather than historical symbols.

While his theoretical victory is not ruled out, his realistic prospects remain weak unless the Academy shifts its direction toward non-European languages. Until then, Adonis remains - for Western cultural institutions - a significant figure in its Arabic context more than a serious candidate for global literary awards.

It remains that the decision of the Swedish Academy often surprises observers, but the data suggests that the battle this year primarily revolves around names that have achieved a balance between the depth of achievement and the modernity of global recognition.

Source: Al Jazeera