"Al-Aqsa Flood": The Earthquake that Changed the Face of the Middle East and Redefined the Future of the Palestinian Cause

Author: خالد سعيد نزال

On October 7, 2023, it wasn’t just the skies over Gaza that ignited with rocket fire; all calculations of world powers and the maps of regional alliances that had been built for decades also burned. "Al-Aqsa Flood" was not merely a traditional military attack but a strategic earthquake that shook the foundations of the strongest armies and the sharpest intelligence agencies worldwide.

What began as a surprise operation from the heart of a besieged Gaza Strip transformed into a historical turning point that brought the Palestinian cause from the depths of neglect back to the forefront of global politics. These events shattered the regional status quo, overturned the balance of power, and forced the world to reconsider all the assumptions that governed the Arab-Israeli conflict.

From the halls of the United Nations to the decision-making offices in Washington and Moscow, from the streets of Arab capitals to the protest squares in Europe, everyone began to ask: How did a small force manage to shake a great military empire? How did the Zionist project transform from a fearsome tiger into a clay giant? And what geopolitical ramifications will the Middle East experience in the coming years?

This article deeply analyzes the major strategic transformations brought about by "Al-Aqsa Flood," from the collapse of the Israeli deterrence theory to the emergence of new players on the regional stage, and from shifts in international positions to profound implications for Israeli society. It is a journey into the heart of the greatest transformation witnessed in the region since the 1973 war and a forward-looking analysis of a future that has become more ambiguous and complex.

This is the October earthquake... and this is its full story.

 Al-Aqsa Flood: The earthquake that reshaped the Palestinian cause and the Middle East

Introduction: From Marginalization to Center Stage

The events of October 7, 2023, marked a historical turning point in the trajectory of the Palestinian cause and the regional transformations in the Middle East. "Al-Aqsa Flood" was not merely a military operation but a geopolitical earthquake that redrew the political and intellectual maps of the region, revealing the fragility of projects that were once considered certainties in international politics.

 Before the Flood: Fragile Stability and Dubious Arrangements

 The Deliberate Marginalization of the Palestinian Cause

The Palestinian cause was living in a phase of "deliberate marginalization" on the international stage before October 2023. The peace process had completely frozen while the Palestinian Authority faced multiple internal and external crises. Meanwhile, Israel adopted a clear strategy of "conflict management" rather than resolution, working to weaken the Palestinian Authority and keeping it alive but incapable of playing an effective role.

The Rise and Expansion of the Abraham Accords

The period leading up to the flood witnessed a notable expansion in the Arab-Israeli normalization agreements (the Abraham Accords) that began in 2020. These agreements marked a radical shift in Arab priorities, where economic and security interests overshadowed traditional support for the Palestinian cause. More importantly, there were advanced negotiations to normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, which would represent a harsh blow to the Palestinian national project.

 The Israeli Vision for Conflict Management

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu adopted a "security-political conception" that relied on preventing the establishment of a Palestinian state while continuing to manage the conflict rather than solving it. This vision relied on keeping the Palestinian Authority weak while allowing Hamas to remain in Gaza but without empowering it militarily. The Palestinian arena was relegated to a lower priority in the Israeli security hierarchy, where strategic assessments focused on the Iranian nuclear threat and Hezbollah on the northern front.

The Flood and Beyond: Deep Geopolitical Transformations

 Palestinian Achievements on the International Level

The Al-Aqsa Flood powerfully brought the Palestinian cause back to global attention after years of deliberate marginalization. The issue transitioned from the margins of international politics to the heart of discussions in universities, parliaments, and streets in the West. The resistance was able to shatter the myth of the invincible Israeli army, revealing enormous security and intelligence gaps in the Israeli system. Despite the immense destruction and horrific human losses, the resistance continued fighting for over two years, representing the longest and costliest war in Israeli history.

Radical Arab and Regional Transformations

The flood forced Arab states that were heading towards normalization with Israel to reassess their calculations and priorities, as the Palestinian cause once again became a litmus test for any Arab movement towards Israel. The events revealed the weakness and retreat of the Iranian axis, as Tehran failed to effectively protect its allies. Hezbollah suffered painful blows without adequate response, and the Syrian regime, which represented a crucial link in this axis, fell, leading to the fragmentation of what is called the Shiite crescent.

The Emergence of New Players: The Houthis and the End of Traditional Regional Domination

The Houthis in Yemen emerged as a major regional player, having opened an effective support front through attacks on ships in the Red Sea and direct rocket strikes reaching deep into Israel, forming an important pressure factor that broke Israel’s monopoly on military deterrence. This emergence represented a strategic shift in the regional balance of power, where traditional force was no longer the sole actor in the equation.

 International Reflections: A Shift in Positions and Alliances

The world witnessed a massive wave of popular solidarity with Palestine, with tens of thousands of protest events recorded in Europe alone, participated in by millions of people from various nationalities and political backgrounds. This global grassroots movement exerted real pressure on Western governments. A sharp division appeared in European positions, where many countries demanded a halt to arms sales to Israel and accountability for its violations of international law. Israel experienced a significant decline in its international standing, with its ranking in the international status index dropping sharply.

The Impact on Israel: A Deep Existential Crisis

The Shaking of the Security and Military Structure

The flood revealed catastrophic failures in the Israeli intelligence and military apparatus. All military plans announced by Israel in Gaza, including tunnel flooding plans and operations involving generals and Gideon vehicles, ended with the deaths of dozens of officers and soldiers without achieving any notable accomplishments.

Unprecedented Internal Political and Social Crisis

Netanyahu’s right-wing government faced sharp criticism, widespread popular protests, and demands for inquiries into security failures and government resignation. Internal divisions deepened, reaching the army and security institutions. Israel faced unprecedented international isolation, as the International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants against Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Gallant on charges of committing "war crimes."

Regional Implications: Towards a New Middle East

The Fall of Assad’s Regime in Syria and the Fragmentation of the Iranian Axis

The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024 represented a major aftershock in the region, as the regime was a significant link in the Iranian axis. This fall changed regional equations and significantly weakened Iranian influence in the area, opening the door for a fundamental reshaping of regional alliances.

Increased Likelihood of Comprehensive Regional Confrontation

With the continued Israeli escalation against Iran and its allies, and Netanyahu’s statements about his intention to strike the Iranian nuclear program and even contemplate overthrowing the Iranian regime itself, the region found itself on the brink of a comprehensive regional confrontation that could completely redraw geopolitical maps.

 The Future: Expected Scenarios and Possible Reflections

 Continued Resistance and Its Escalation

It is likely that Palestinian resistance will continue to develop its methods and increase its capabilities, benefiting from the rising popular support and the growing international legitimacy for its cause. The coming period may witness a qualitative escalation in confrontation methods.

 The Fragmentation of the Israeli Entity from Within

Israel faces a real existential crisis that could lead to significant internal fragmentation, especially with ongoing protests demanding government resignation and inquiries into failures, deepening societal divisions among various political currents.

Comprehensive Regional War and Major Geopolitical Transformations

With the escalation of Israeli threats to Iran and continued attacks on its allies, the region may witness a comprehensive regional war involving multiple powers. This war could lead to a complete reshaping of geopolitical maps in the area.

The Collapse of the Settlement Project and the Birth of a New Liberation Project

It is evident that the settlement project based on the two-state solution has entered a state of coma, opening the door for the birth of a new liberation project based on resistance and struggle in all its forms, benefiting from the global popular momentum and rising international support.

 Conclusion: A New Middle East and the Recasting of a Renewed Palestinian Cause

Al-Aqsa Flood represented a geopolitical earthquake that shook the pillars of the regional system in the Middle East, revealing the fragility of the Zionist project and its failure to achieve security and stability even for itself. This event brought the Palestinian cause back to the international forefront, breaking Israel’s monopoly on power and deterrence and opening the door for deep regional transformations that may completely redraw the map of the region.

The Middle East that emerges after the Al-Aqsa Flood will not be the same as it was before this date. The future holds numerous possibilities, but one thing is certain: the Palestinian cause has returned to the heart of the regional equation, and the people of Palestine have once again proven that they are the rightful owners of the land and the cause, capable of imposing their existence and rights on the agenda of the entire world.

This report relies on the latest analyses and reports available up to August 2025, based on evaluations from international think tanks, analyses from politicians, and reliable media reports.