Saudi Trade Balance Surplus Soars at Highest Rate in Over Three Years

SadaNews - The Saudi trade balance surplus has continued to show positive performance, achieving growth for the third consecutive month at the highest rate in over three years in November, driven by an expansion in non-oil exports and an improvement in oil export performance.

The trade balance surplus increased by 70.2% year-on-year, the strongest growth rate since August 2022, according to the international trade report issued today, Sunday, by the Statistics Authority.

This performance was driven by an overall expansion in exports, particularly non-oil exports, including re-exports which surged by about 21% year-on-year, supported by re-export activity, despite a monthly decline of 4.5%.

Oil exports also supported the surplus, recording an annual growth of 5.4%, although they fell by 4.4% on a monthly basis.

The oil activities in the Kingdom recorded the highest growth rate in the third quarter of last year since the same period in 2022, coinciding with a gradual liberation of oil production following the end of voluntary cuts by the "OPEC+" alliance at the end of August, where Saudi Arabia raised its production by approximately 547,000 barrels per day starting September, followed by an additional increase of about 137,000 barrels per day in November.

However, at the same time, crude oil production in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) remained stable in November, as the group maintained a cautious strategy amid a slowdown in global oil markets, according to a survey by Bloomberg. This also comes after key members of "OPEC+", led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, decided to freeze production increases during the first quarter of 2026.

Expected Surge in Saudi Oil Exports in 2026

With the beginning of 2026, Saudi oil sales are expected to see a significant spike, as customers from the United States to Asia are poised to purchase larger quantities. Bloomberg estimates indicate that Chinese refineries may receive around 50 million barrels from Saudi Arabia at the beginning of the year.

Conversely, Wall Street banks are adopting a pessimistic view regarding price trends. According to the average forecasts of Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and Morgan Stanley, Brent crude prices may decline in 2026 to an average of $59 per barrel due to an increase in supply and growing pressures on the market.