What Are the Chances of Success for the Quartet's Initiative on Sudan Amid Field Escalation?

SadaNews - Once again, initiatives aimed at resolving the Sudanese crisis have returned to the forefront, after the "international quartet" - consisting of the United States, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE - launched a round of negotiations with delegations from the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces on October 24, 2025, in the capital Washington.

This round of negotiations aims to discuss a comprehensive initiative to resolve the Sudanese crisis, which calls for establishing a practical mechanism for a ceasefire and building internal political negotiations that lead to a consensus civilian rule, while the war has continued since mid-April 2023, and following the recent takeover of the city of El Fasher by the Rapid Support Forces.

Although the quartet's initiative represents a new dynamic in the attempt to achieve peace, it faces many obstacles and challenges that could impede its success.

Regarding the context of the initiative and the possibilities of its success, as well as the influencing factors, the Abaad Center for Strategic Studies published an analytical report entitled "The International Quartet's Initiative on Sudan and Its Chances of Success Amid Field Escalation."

The report attempts to provide insights into the issues surrounding the Sudanese conflict within the framework of this initiative, as well as the potential scenarios for the future of the war that has persisted for about three years.

First: Context of the Initiative

The quartet's initiative emerges within the context of regional and international efforts to halt military escalation in Sudan and return to a political path, amid rising tensions due to confrontations in Darfur and Kordofan, particularly in El Fasher and Al-Obeid.

This initiative coincides with a worsening humanitarian situation reaching a critical stage, as figures from the United Nations indicate that Sudan is facing one of the worst emergencies in the world, with over 30 million people in need of humanitarian assistance, including more than 9.6 million internally displaced persons and around 15 million children.

The humanitarian and field conditions have worsened following the Rapid Support Forces' takeover of El Fasher, prompting thousands of residents to flee the city, which is now classified as a disaster area.

In this context, the statement issued by the group on September 11 called for a three-month truce between the warring parties to provide urgent humanitarian aid to affected civilians, followed by a peaceful political transition process that lasts nine months, leading to the establishment of a legitimate civilian government that earns the trust of the Sudanese people.

The international quartet's initiative reflects the international community's interest in stabilizing Sudan, as its continued state of chaos poses a direct threat to the security of the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea region. Additionally, Washington's interest in the Sudanese crisis is framed within the context of the U.S.-Chinese competition over resources and influence.

Second: Possibilities of the Initiative's Success

Regarding the potential for the international quartet's initiative to resolve the Sudanese crisis, the study noted that despite acceptance of the relevant countries' reference and their initiative, which may form the basis for peace, several factors limit its potential, namely:

1- The Position of the Sovereignty Council

The Head of the Sovereignty Council and Commander of the Army, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, has announced his absolute refusal to accept a peace council or government claiming the people have rejected it, which indicates his reluctance to enter into a partnership with the other party.

The Sovereignty Council insists on supervising the political process, even though the quartet's statement stipulated that the future governance of Sudan should not be under the control of any warring party.

2- Field Situation

The ongoing conflict and fighting are among the most significant factors obstructing the settlement aimed for by the quartet, as confrontations between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese army continue to escalate, which could impact the political and negotiation processes in general.

3- Concerns About External Dominance

Some Sudanese political forces may fear that the quartet's international settlement could lead to a re-emergence of international dominance or regional interests, undermining Sudanese unity.

Third: Scenarios for Resolving the Crisis

The study pointed out that there are three potential scenarios for the future of the conflict in Sudan under the initiative launched by the quartet aimed at reaching a peace agreement and ending the war that has significantly exacerbated humanitarian conditions.

1- Scenario of Settlement Failure and War Continuation

This possibility manifests with the ongoing lack of trust between the army and the Rapid Support Forces, the fragmentation of civil powers, and the rise of tribal and ethnic conflicts.

This scenario could lead to the erosion of state institutions and the emergence of competing centers of influence that could share geography and wealth, potentially turning Sudan into an open arena for competition among external powers, reproducing a model reminiscent of Libya or Somalia.

2- Scenario of Achieving Balance

This possibility implies achieving a balance between international pressures and national interests, with the quartet's initiative representing a practical framework for this direction; however, it remains fragile in the face of any sudden military escalation or uncontrolled external intervention.

3- Scenario of Imposed Settlement

This entails imposing a settlement based on internal consensus among the military, civil, and tribal components of Sudan, leading to the establishment of a new political system that redefines the national state.

According to the study, the success of this scenario depends on the maturation of a new political class that transcends the logic of dominance to that of social contract, establishing genuine civil legitimacy.

The report concludes that the quartet's initiative forms a fundamental driving force for internal peaceful resolution in Sudan, as it was launched by influential countries, and Sudan can benefit from their weight to obtain the best equation for peace that ensures productive partnerships to aid in national rebuilding, but its success hinges on the willingness of Sudanese actors to accept a formula that combines international guarantees and national reconciliation.

Source: Abaad Center for Strategic Studies