Sudani's Victory in Iraq Elections Ignites Race for the 'Largest Bloc'

SadaNews - Preliminary results in Iraq have shown that Prime Minister Muhammad Sudani's bloc has achieved a significant victory in the elections held yesterday, Tuesday. Although he has joined the ranks of the major players in the Shia alliance, his path to a second term in office remains long, as Shia forces collectively won a substantial number of seats.

The results are likely to contribute to a split within the "Coordination Framework" into two teams, one under Sudani and the other led by his rival Nouri al-Maliki, head of the "State of Law" coalition, after elections that were not significantly affected by the absence of Muqtada al-Sadr due to high voter turnout, according to figures from the relevant authorities.

Preliminary Results

After a delay of about two hours past the legal deadline, the Electoral Commission announced the preliminary results on Wednesday evening. It reported that the "Reconstruction and Development" coalition led in the capital Baghdad, followed by the "Progress" party led by Muhammad al-Halbousi, and the "State of Law" coalition headed by Nouri al-Maliki.

Sources from within the "Reconstruction and Development" coalition, led by Sudani, indicated that he received 250,000 votes in Baghdad, and his coalition garnered a large number of votes from cities in the south and center of the country, while the "Progress" party swept the votes of voters in Anbar province, placing second and third in central and northern Iraq.

In the Shia context, the lists of "State of Law," "Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq," "State Forces," "Services," "Abshir Ya Iraq," "Rights," "Badr," "Design," and "Foundation" collectively secured over 100 seats.

It is expected that the total Shia seats in parliament, accounting for Sudani's seats, will exceed 170, pending the final results announcements.

In the Kurdish context, preliminary results showed an advantage for the "Kurdistan Democratic Party" led by Masoud Barzani in the Kurdistan region, while civil parties faced a severe loss in this electoral cycle.

Voter Turnout

The Independent High Election Commission in Iraq announced on Wednesday that the overall voter turnout was 56.11 percent after counting 99.98 percent of votes from polling stations.

The commission stated in a statement that "the total number of voters in the general and special voting reached 12,009,453 out of 21,404,291 eligible voters." The statement added that "the general voting saw participation from 10,904,637 voters out of 20,063,773, marking a turnout rate of 54.35 percent."

As for the special voting, the commission indicated that "the turnout rate for the armed forces and security forces reached 82.52 percent, with 1,084,289 voters participating out of 1,313,980. The turnout rate for displaced persons stood at 77.35 percent, with 20,527 voters participating out of 26,538."

The commission often relies on the number of individuals who updated their records and received their biometric cards when calculating the turnout rate, which inflates the participation figures; however, those numbers would drop if the participation ratio were to be assessed based on around 30 million citizens within the legal voting age who did not update their records or participate in the elections. Research centers indicate that the current participation rate is 40.95 percent.

The Biggest Losers

According to the results, the boycott by the Sadrist movement did not prevent its Shia rivals in the "Coordination Framework" from achieving an acceptable turnout and securing a significant number of seats without the impact of Sadrist absence on the political equation, instead establishing a new duality between the current Prime Minister and al-Maliki, who still maintains a relatively stable number of Shia seats.

The civil movements are considered the biggest losers in this election, and it appears that the "Alternatives" and "Democratic Civil Alliance" lists, under which most civil figures and forces ran, including the "Iraqi Communist Party," have not secured any parliamentary seats as of the preparation of this report.

Even if they managed to secure one or two parliamentary seats, their loss has represented a severe shock to most opposing directions of the dominance of political Islam forces.

The head of the "Alternatives" alliance, MP Adnan al-Zarfi from Najaf province, who appears not to have secured enough votes for a new parliamentary seat, stated in a post on "X": "We fought an unequal electoral battle between political money and the exploitation of power against a civil project whose sole campaign was the people's conviction in the (Alternatives) program and their belief in change."

He called on the commission to "exercise its role to the fullest and hold accountable everyone who sought to distort the electoral process through documented and public vote buying in Najaf province, and through the exchange of gunfire between candidates' supporters, as this represents a political blow that impacts the essence of the democratic process and the will of the free voter."

Sudani's Victory

Sudani's victory has redefined the rules of the game within the Shia "Coordination Framework". After managing to attain the position of Prime Minister in the previous session with just two parliamentary seats, close associates speak of the possibility of him acquiring a significant number of seats in this session, which would make him a key player within the Framework space and a competitor for the position of Prime Minister for a second term; he has clearly expressed this desire.

However, things do not appear so easy in the eyes of many observers, as the Prime Minister's position is traditionally reserved for the Shia component, often designed within the Shia forces in a manner that is not dictated by the number of parliamentary seats or electoral weights.

Both Nouri al-Maliki, head of the "State of Law" coalition, and Qais al-Khazali, head of the "Sadiqoun" bloc, who obtained over 60 seats, may strongly resist Sudani taking the Prime Minister's office for a second time, a resistance that Maliki has expressed on several occasions before the elections. They may be joined by winners from the "Coordination Framework" who could collectively secure around 40 seats.

Approaches to the 'Largest Bloc'

No party in Iraq is capable of forming a government alone in the 329-seat parliament. Thus, parties must build alliances with other groups to form a government, a process fraught with risks that often take months.

Yasin al-Bakri, a political science professor at Al-Nahrain University, asserts that the upcoming struggle within the Shia political house will revolve around forming the largest bloc, governed by difficult and strenuous maneuvers, with Sudani on one side and Maliki on the other.

According to sources, leaders of the "Coordination Framework" are considering declaring themselves the largest bloc without including Sudani. This is based on the conviction that Sudani no longer fully represents the Framework after the elections, and that continued reliance on him in negotiations may weaken the position of traditional forces such as the "State of Law" coalition and the "Opening" alliance.

In this scenario, these forces would seek to open the door for members withdrawing from Sudani's bloc in exchange for guarantees regarding executive positions, thus reshaping the larger Shia coalition without Sudani himself.

Another approach assumes that Sudani may choose to join the "Coordination Framework" again but under specific coalition terms, especially if he feels that the bloc he leads cannot impose a separate political reality.

Sudani's joining would provide the framework with a comfortable majority, but it would also bring figures within the "Reconstruction and Development" coalition, such as Ahmad al-Asadi and Faleh Alfayyadh, back to the negotiating forefront, potentially reducing Sudani's margin within the upcoming government.

The most likely approach, according to sources, involves breaking apart Sudani's bloc by having its members join other alliances within the framework, thus depriving Sudani of the ability to negotiate as a representative of a unified bloc.

This path is considered "the natural mathematical solution," as described by sources, because it alleviates pressure on the "Coordination Framework" and avoids direct clashes between its leaders, but it also means a decrease in Sudani's influence in selecting the next Prime Minister.

Nonetheless, there is a potential promoted by Sudani's close associates that he may manage to attract Shia forces from the "Coordination Framework" to the second-term project, based on a U.S. and regional position that could redraw the rules of the game in Baghdad.

Al-Bakri tells "Asharq Al-Awsat" that "it is difficult for Sudani to maintain the cohesion of his alliances outside of (Reconstruction and Development), and this is a space that Nuri al-Maliki, who is experienced in forming alliances, will exploit."

Al-Bakri believes that Iranian influence will play a role in supporting movements of parts of the "Coordination Framework" at Sudani's expense, as "the repercussions of the regional reality will cast shadows over the formation of the largest bloc."

Post-Elections

Since the first multi-election held in the country in 2005, the convention has been that the presidential position, which is largely symbolic, is allocated to the Kurds, while the Shia hold the Prime Ministership, which is the most important position, and the Sunni lead the Council of Representatives, based on a power-sharing system among the influential political forces.

First, the Supreme Court in Iraq must ratify the election results. The parliament should elect a new president in its first session, which must convene within 15 days of the final results announcement, chaired by the oldest MP.

After the first session, the parliament is to elect a president within 30 days by a two-thirds majority, which requires at least 220 seats, and must result from a coalition deal between Shia, Sunni, and Kurdish representatives.

The President is required to assign a head of government within 15 days of his election, who will be the candidate of the "largest parliamentary bloc," according to the constitution, and the actual representative of the executive authority.

In the absence of an absolute majority, any coalition able to negotiate with allies becomes the largest bloc and selects the next Prime Minister. Upon designation, he has 30 days to form a government.

"An Important Opportunity"

The EU mission in Iraq has urged "active political parties to support the formation of a government that reflects the will of the Iraqi people," affirming its "steadfast support for the unity, sovereignty, and territorial integrity of Iraq."

The mission stated in a press release that "the elections represent an important opportunity for Iraq to strengthen its institutions, ensure inclusivity and accountability, and establish its political future," noting that "the stability of Iraq gains increasing importance in light of ongoing regional geopolitical transformations."

For its part, the United Nations confirmed on Wednesday its commitment to supporting Iraq in its journey towards strengthening democratic gains, emphasizing the importance of timely government formation.

UN Secretary-General spokesman Stefan Dujarric stated in a statement: "The Secretary-General congratulates the Iraqi people on holding parliamentary elections, and he commends the Independent High Electoral Commission for its efforts to ensure the effective preparation and conduct of the elections."

The Secretary-General welcomed "the holding of elections in a generally peaceful and orderly manner, and he trusts that the political parties involved will maintain a spirit of peace and respect for the electoral process while awaiting the results announcement," stressing the "importance of the government formation process taking place in a timely and peaceful manner, reflecting the will of the Iraqi people and achieving their aspirations for stability and development."

The Secretary-General, according to the statement, reaffirmed "the UN's commitment to support Iraq in its journey towards strengthening democratic gains and achieving the aspirations of all Iraqis for a future characterized by peace and prosperity."