On the Risks Facing Syria and Lebanon

If the news about the security agreements leaked between the Assad regime and the occupying state is true, and it is likely to be, as indicated by the fact that we have yet to hear a "denial" from the Golani regime, nor does it seem that we will hear one soon, and perhaps we may never hear one at all. If the news is correct, then Syria as we have known it until today has been sold off, and an area of no less than ten thousand square kilometers has been carved out of it, in the form of regions that have exited the political jurisdiction, including the nominal jurisdiction of the "ruling" regime in Damascus.

Sweida has formed its own army and possesses regular forces with serious and heavy weapons. It is no longer prepared to return to a "central state" except on the basis of a federation that grants it "complete independence" except for some forms of shared services with other federations that are expected to be formed soon.

According to leaked news about the security agreement between the Golani regime and the occupying state, the entire Daraa region will be demilitarized, and local internal security is the only form permissible by Israel.

As for the area under the control of the occupying state throughout southern Syria, it has been agreed that it will be entirely under Israeli security protection.

It is said, and it is likely that what has been said, and what is being said about the occupied Syrian Golan is that it involves an open lease for a period of 25 years, with reports of 50 years that automatically renew. Thus, this effectively transforms the Zionist state's decision for final annexation into a decision approved by Syria through the formula of an open lease.

As for the "SDF" region, the "hope" of its inclusion within the framework of the hypothesized "central state" has ended, and the matter has been resolved toward a region, and as part of the future federal system.

Northern Syria, from the countryside of Aleppo and Idlib, remains entirely under Turkey's temporary guardianship until a region in the new federal system is established, while the fate of the Syrian coast is left to future developments, as the entire coast and the Alawite mountains are still without direct guardianship from anyone as of now.

Turkey has learned the lesson well, and the most important thing it understood is that it no longer has long arms, after the Golani regime aligned itself with the United States and Israeli dominance. Even a short arm will be amputated if it tries to rebel against the new reality.

Turkey has fallen into the trap that was set for it, or it has put itself in, and it is no longer capable of changing this equation unless it uses its strong cards, or those it still believes are strong against the Golani regime itself, which is a matter fraught with great risks to the Turkish state itself.

With the new leaked agreements, Turkey has been stripped of the sources of power in its regional role, has been curtailed, and has retreated to internal Turkish matters practically, as it has lost the advantage of confronting SDF forces, and has lost control over groups that now form the backbone of the Golani regime's power. Its role as a guardian has become a temporary role until the "official announcement" of the new federal system. Even its role in Azerbaijan is no longer decisive after Iran and Russia objected to the project of transforming the Armenian-Azerbaijani region into an investment corridor that encircles Iran, and into a region that affects the geography of Russia's vital space.

Not only this, but Turkey and Qatar are no longer willing to support rapid economic recovery operations in Syria as long as the alignment of the Golani regime with the new security agreements has directly contributed to besieging Turkey's regional role amid the tragic deterioration of living conditions in Syria, and with 90% of the discussions about coming investments turning into operations to sell state-owned assets in real estate and land in particular. The sale of these assets has turned into monstrous operations of corruption, bribes, and sharing the spoils among warlords, new leaders, and "international forces" coming from China and Uzbekistan, as well as Chechnya and other countries that export armed men and terrorists overseen by Western intelligence for many years. Not to mention that thousands of leaders of "al-Nusra" are fully aware of the relationship connecting them with Israeli intelligence.

Thus, Syria as we have known it until today has been transformed into a failed and powerless state, with nothing more than selling and leasing what it has seized of assets and resources to maintain the Golani regime in power until the day of getting rid of it, either at the hands of the Americans and the occupying state, or at the hands of Turkey if it still thinks of any regional role for itself in the future, and the "Sunnis of the Levant" themselves are Turkey's allies, and they are no longer allies of the Golani.

It is clear that Donald Trump has relinquished the direct role of his country in the Levant in favor of the Israeli role, as he will take on the direct role in Iran and the Gulf region. Therefore, the new Syrian role is to play with Lebanese cards after the latter has transformed into a system whose political jurisdiction is confined to the four cities: Damascus, Hama, Homs, and part of Aleppo.

After the failure of attempts to disarm Lebanese "Hezbollah", and the Americans' failure to compel the occupying state to stop aggressions and withdraw from the five hills, the only possible solution now is to explode the internal Lebanese situation, hoping to build a "Sunni-Christian" alliance with the help of the Golani regime to force the Shiite component to "submit" to a new equation based on the displacement of southern residents, and converting the South into a real estate investment area connected to an investment project extending to Syria in regions that are being carved out to serve these directions, which have been dubbed the upcoming phase of "prosperity" and are being promoted by Tom Barrack himself.

If the new attempt to explode Lebanon fails, and to besiege the Shiite component, the American-Zionist alliance will likely resort to dividing Lebanon into a "Christian" protectorate, a "Druze mountain," and a Sunni alliance with the Assad regime, which may extend to the partitioning of Tripoli, and keeping western Beirut as a contact area and conflict zone between Sunnis and Shiites, as some estimates and information in Western and Arab intelligence circles suggest.

The new Lebanese equation is becoming clearer by the day, presenting it with two alternatives, with no third option:

Either a state that accepts Israeli control over the South, and its acceptance here means sufficiency with sovereignty outside the grip of Israeli hegemony, or internal conflict, and the federalization of the Lebanese situation among regions that do not coexist based on constitutional grounds, including the "Taif" formula, but rather on sectarian, religious, and confessional bases with their own governments and states.

The formulas that the occupying state is thinking of for Lebanon are that it is either a completely subservient state, or no state at all. After exhausting the project of the Golani regime and its inevitable failure, Syria will return to the same equation: either a federal state at best, turning Syria into regions that have no connection to the motherland (Syria) aside from a dysfunctional economic system, and security protections that do not pose a threat of any kind.

This is what the centers of national security and policy research in the occupying state are thinking, and they are feeding the corresponding centers in America. The "fascist right" in the occupying state goes even further, as all of this is still under discussion, and Israeli geographical expansion may be what is on the agenda first, ahead of the arrangements we have referred to.

This is what they see, and what they are planning for, but none of this will see the light of day, nor is it destined to happen, and it is unlikely that it will occur, because the occupying state has reached the highest degrees of internal weakness that does not qualify it to carry out these roles in the visible reality. It will collapse internally before it can move forward with these plans, and its discourse contains more empty ideologies than it contains facts and realities that can transform into real equations.